Monday, July 30, 2012

UK M4 shows continuing decline

Figures released today by the Bank of England show that M4 lending (quarterly, annualised) shrank again in the second quarter of 2012 - slightly up from Q1, but still lower than before. Where will it end?

Playing the chartist game, I connected the last two pairs of highs and lows, expecting to see the lines cross somewhere and give us an indication of the bottom. Instead, the channel not only trends downward but is widening.

Join your own dots, but despite all the QE I don't see a terminus. Will the next inflection - the next "top" - be in negative territory?

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