Wednesday, October 15, 2008

We're back to last Thursday

The Dow has closed at 8,577.91, 733.08 off its start today. My amateur trend-drawing suggests that it's now back into its midstream; but then there's often an overshoot.

However, for those who do have money and also a long view, maybe it's not a bad price.


Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Sack

I would hold off on investing until the dust settles. Three years after the 1929 crash there were no buyers and prices stayed low and people were afraid that they would still go lower. The present thinking that you will miss a buying "opportunity" tells you that the market is no where near a psychological bottom.

Tomorrow could be a real mess. Japan right now is down 10%.

Sackerson said...

Hi, Jim, and thanks for calling by. I agree that there may well be further falls - and rises - but for the retail investor who is prepared to commit to regular premiums, this might not be a bad place to start. Ceratinly better priced than it was a while ago.

The big lump sum investor crocs with sharp reflexes will, of course, stay in the river with their eyes above the water, waiting for the right moment to strike.

Derivatives blown up badly yet?

James Higham said...

It's good to hold off from a risk point of view but look at Simon Cawkwell, for example, who is buying in and selling short still. He's making a killing.

matt said...

I would say that if you intend to scrape for long term value, you would do better in some of the non U.S. markets.

Also, it's generally not advisable to bottom fish in markets that have 10 percent intra day swings. I might start nibbling on some large cap consumer staples that have high dividends (particularly some companies in Europe), but I'm keeping my powder dry.