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Friday, January 25, 2008

Au revoir

It looks as though the bear market has begun, though of course, events are liable to make fools of all of us. A recent peak was in October last year and if we take a recession as lasting typically 30 months, we should be grounding by around April 2010.

I've done my best to add my voice to the growing chorus of somethingmustbedonners, and tried to warn investors as I did in the late Nineties - not that I'm wise, but I seek out the wise. This won't put off the day traders, who rush in where angels fear to tread and will try to make fortunes on the rattlesnake-fast turns of bear market rallies; some will get it right, and fair play to you, as they say.

For the rest of us, I don't think I can better the common sense, brevity and clarity of this in the comments section from Jim in San Marcos, answering an investor's query as to what to do:

The basic premise is to pay off your debts and have some spare cash in the bank. There will be layoffs.

Buying a big item right now could tie you to a commitment that could be more than you anticipated. I know of one person already that was surprised by a layoff. They didn't see it coming.

If it gets worse, a lot of people will be selling big ticket items to raise cash. There should be some pretty good deals out there.

Money isn't everything, and there are bigger issues facing us: the growing military as well as economic power of Russia and China; our failure to nurture and educate our young, which points up the selfishness of our adults; the threat to democracy that is big government combined with big business, and the growing divide between an increasingly internationalist managerial class and a resentful, paralysed underclass whose numbers grow while our economies shrink and twist. And perhaps it is not entirely paranoid to suggest that there are many (often well-meaning, by their lights) proto-revolutionaries hacking away at the cultural and social ties that bind us, still dreaming that Bakunin was right when he said that the urge to destroy is also the urge to create.

I now have to take some time out to set my own affairs in order - too many commitments, personal and professional. Good luck to you all, and thanks for reading and commenting.


jmb said...

What? Just temporary right?

Sackerson said...

Kind of you to show an interest, jmb. Got to sort out a vast pile of obligations; meantime I've emptied my word-hoard on the narrower subject of finance. As i say, there are much wider issues to discuss and I hope to return sometime; but I don't want to talk like a wise man and act like a fool, so first things first.

Sackerson said...

PS: love the dog. Yours?

Nick Drew said...

You have done us all many services, Sackers.

I am personally in better (financial) shape after picking up on some of the wisdom you've assembled on this blog - yours, and others'.

thanks !

(and *go gold!*)

Anonymous said...

Farewell and thank you.

Anonymous said...

Sorry to see you go. I enjoyed your site. As usual your comments today are to the point. Best of luck.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hey Sack

How long you taking off for???

One or two weeks sounds OK--

Is that about right???

Take care


Sackerson said...

I'll be back.

hatfield girl said...

Sackerson on culture, its transmission to the young, and creativity will be as absorbing as your prime appearance on financial affairs.

You have discovered of course
Only the Ship of Fools is
Making the voyage this year,
As gales of abnormal force
Are predicted, and that you
Must therefore be ready to
Behave absurdly..

But au revoir, S, a dopo.

jmb said...

Sackerson, I've moved you to the sleeping blogroll at BP. I have you on bloglines so will move you to the main one when you return.

Yeah, Cleo my Westie, sadly no more.

Anonymous said...

This blog has been a true gem. Thanks for all the good posts and I hope to see you back.

James Higham said...

Tragic if you won't be here - it was fresh air every time [brath of, not vacuous :)].

This last post sums it up nicely too.