Fiji: Tyranny as political checks and balances are torn up

 

From the open forum blog on Fiji Today:

  

The Bainimarama/Khaiyum Constitution (ADACIP)

Professor Wadan Narsey

22 March 2012

The Bainimarama/Khaiyum Constitution (BKC) is the final stage of a “successful” coup.

If elections are held in 2014 and an elected Government comes into place, the international community may be relieved to see a cosmetic end to the most painful chapter in Fiji’s modern history.

But we need to remember, the Bainimarama Regime has never abided by

* any Constitution or any Oath of Office that any of them have ever taken,
* any promise or commitment made to Fiji or the international community, or
* any ruling by the judiciary which goes against them.

In 2006, Bainimarama and the RFMF, removed the constitutionally elected prime minister and made himself Prime Minister.

He promised elections by 2009 but broke that promise and has now ruled for more than six years.

The Regime’s Charter, allegedly approved by three quarters of Fiji’s adults, stated the 1997 Constitution would be supreme, but when the Appeal Court judgment went against them in 2009, Bainimarama abrogated the 1997 Constitution.

In 2011, the Regime appointed its own Ghai Constitution Commission (stacked with Regime supporters) to consult widely and write a Constitution which abided by all the Regime’s non-negotiable principles (which they did) AND which would be vetted by the Constituent Assembly AND the Chief Justice’s Tribunal.

But with Ghai Draft not completely to the Regime’s liking, both the Commission and the Draft Constitution, were flippantly trashed.

I wrote then (http://narseyonfiji.wordpress.com/2013/01/14/trashing-the-ghai-constitution-the-positives-14-january-2013/

“Over the next six months, meticulous comparisons between the Regime’s Constitution and the Ghai Draft Constitution- what exactly is changed, added and left out – will reveal more facts to Fiji and the world, about the Regime’s “real Roadmap”.

I also noted that Fiji people could

“watch with deep interest (and remember) who exactly are the “people’s representatives” who will turn up to rubber-stamp the Military Regime’s Constitution. There is a definitely a new ball game in town.”

Well, no need for Fiji people to tire their eyes any further: the Regime has moved the goal-posts again, and there won’t be any Constituent Assembly.

Why not? Bainimarama alleges the political parties were fiddling their registrations (and the sun was shining). Right.
Bainimarama has decreed: “You, the people of Fiji” will now be the Constituent Assembly. Right.

So the people of Fiji can personally write or talk to the Regime (with their names, addresses, phone numbers etc.) and the Regime will take on board your comments. Right.

Bainimarama promises “we will finalize the Constitution to have it ready for implementation no later than the 12^th of April this year”.

So even the pliant President won’t be required to assent to the Constitution, but “We”? Right.

There is a new ball game in town and the Baimarama/Khaiyum Team is winning.

As the purchase and arrival of the Airbus shows, it is incredibly easy for Regime spin doctors to get Fiji’s population people to sing and dance, cry with pride at being a Fijian and “owning” their own airplane (even if it is on mortgage, and the only difference is the new colors inside and outside the plane).

Out of sight and out of mind are Fiji’s

* lost billion dollars of income over the last six years
* increasing mountains of public debt
* creaking and leaking FNPF pension fund
* mounting unemployment
* falling real incomes (except for the military),
* increasing poverty
* record rates of suicides and attempted suicides, and
* unbelievably sordid violence against women, children and even babies.

Our people, no doubt orchestrated again by the Fiji Sun and Fiji Broadcasting Corporation, will soon sing and dance over the new Constitution, promising racial equality, with one man, one vote. Right.

The rest here, is merely for the record.

What’s different in the BKC?

The Ghai Draft Constitution did not grant immunity for abuse of human rights; it granted immunity only to those who took an oath renouncing their support of illegal regimes; and it allowed citizens to go to court with their grievances and for damages.

The BKC grants total and unconditional immunity from 2000 to the 2014 elections, with no exceptions, no legal challenges allowed, or recourse for damages for anyone injured by those granted immunity.

People are still not understanding that the immunity being granted is not from 2006, but from 2000 “under the Limitation of Liability for Prescribed Political Events Decree 2010″ (section 153 (1)).

Gone is the Ghai requirement (to discourage future coups) that all members of the security forces (army, police and prisons) must be explicitly required to not obey unlawful orders from their superiors. So, without that provision, the security forces can continue to follow unlawful orders, with total impunity, as they have done for the past six years, and do more coups when they feel like it. So look forward to ADACIP (no prizes for guessing the two meanings of this acronym).

Gone is the requirement that Regime Decrees must be modified in order to be consistent with the new constitution and its fundamental human rights, and that legal proceedings terminated by decree, must be “revived and may be proceeded with under this Constitution”. The Ghai Draft Constitution even listed those decrees that had to be changed.

No more. The BKC states that all decrees and promulgations will continue in force. No legal challenges will be tolerated. No legal cases will be resuscitated (so forget the Burness pensioner case).

In the Brave New World of the BKC, no future Parliament will EVER be allowed to change any of the entrenched provisions such as the unconditional immunity and restriction of rights to go to court. Right.

There is no longer any role for the Tribunal to be appointed by the Chief Justice to “approve” the BKC.

The Chief Justice can now say with a straight face (as he did a few days ago) that the judiciary must objectively and impartially apply the law as it is, and not be part of the law-making process. Right. (we will all practice amnesia over the events of 2006 and the immunity provisions for the judiciary in the BKC).

The BKC not only imposes interesting limitations on, but grants interesting discretion, to the judiciary.

112(4) also states that “a judicial officer is protected from civil or criminal action for anything said or done, or omitted to be done, in the performance of a judicial function”.

The Attorney General, in addition to many other powers, is also granted powers to “intervene in proceedings before the High Court” (40(7)).

Also gone is the requirement that the Regime would have had to give way to a caretaker government six months before the 2014 elections. Right.

Other interesting differences

Those with the time and energy can go through the BKC and the Ghai Draft and see what’s been added and what’s been deleted.

That relating to the media may be read here, in Marc Edge’s commentary:
http://fijimediawars.blogspot.co.nz/

There is the usual great rhetoric on basic human rights such as

* freedom of expression, publication and media
* freedom of assembly
* freedom of association
* freedom of employment relations
* freedom of movement and residence
* freedom of religion (the Catholic Church in Fiji like to might read Section 22 (6))

BUT, for each of these rights, the BKC devotes even more space on the limitations of these rights.

With the elimination of the Upper House, there is a total lack of checks and balances to Parliament.

Once a Bill is passed, no one, not even the President has the right to dissent, or even ask for a reconsideration. The Bill will be “deemed to be assented to” within 7 days.

All public service officers will be “under contract”.

Civil servants must retire at 55, unlike the Chief Justice (who must retire at 75) or High Court judges (who must retire at the age of 70 but be eligible to be promoted) or Commissioners of Police and Corrections and the Commander of the RFMF (for whom there is no retirement age).

Constitutional lawyers are going to have a field day.

Who is the BKC for?

The Oaths and Affirmations at the end of the BKC document states that Prime Ministers, Ministers, Parliamentarians, and judicial officers must all swear allegiance to the Constitution.

Except the Oath and Affirmation for the next President. An interesting faux pas?

With Commodore Bainimarama declaring that he will stand for elections as Prime Minister, who is in their plan for President? Some might think that it will be Superman.

But a real international PR scoop and yet another “first” for the Regime and Fiji, might be an Indo-Fijian AND woman President? No prizes for guessing who THAT might be.

Is the Constituent Assembly Dead?

The Regime refuses to call a Constituent Assembly.

But nothing stops the people of Fiji from calling their own People’s Constituent Assembly.

All the social, political, religious organizations and concerned individuals who want to, can have a two day meeting to discuss what is in the BKC; agree wherever they can on common concerns and positions.

They can publish their communique through an advertisement in the media and as an open letter to Commodore Bainimarama. They have nothing to fear: all this is allowed by the BKC.

Fiji people have so far meekly accepted being herded here and there, like sheep through the corrals of Animal Farm.

But they could announce, as in Merry Olde England: the Constituent Assembly is dead. Long live the People’s Constituent Assembly!

Plus an associated legal comment:

A legal comment by Fiji’s Shortest ever Resident Magistrate

 

March 23, 2013

I have only looked over the document (the new draft Constitution) for ten minutes but what I have seen scares and shocks me. The findings below relate only to the judiciary and the rule of law.

It is a hallmark of any democracy that power is not concentrated in to a few sets of hands. That is the reason we have parliaments in the first place.

Here are my initial observations (my suggestions for an easy remedy are italicised):

Point 1.

The Chief Justice becomes acting President in the absence of the President. (s 87) (Parliament should choose a Vice President [semi –retired senior public figure] selected with 50% of support from the house.)

Point 2.

The PM can request the CJ to establish a tribunal to remove the President (s88 (3)
(The two person tribunal should be recommended to parliament by the AG. Parliament may then make a motion in its own right, to dismiss the president [ requiring a 75% majority]after allowing the President to show cause before the parliament. This should be a function of the parliament and not the PM and CJ)

Point 3.

Only the president can remove the CJ (s110 (2)
(The two person tribunal to investigate and recommend the dismissal of the CJ should be established by the AG. Parliament may then make a motion to move the President to dismiss the CJ [requiring a 75% majority]after allowing the CJ to show cause before the parliament.)

Point 4.

The quorum of the Judicial Services Commission (JSC) IS the Chief Justice, and two others. S103(2)
(The quorum should be larger and more diverse. The current proposal is a dangerous precedent.)

Point 5.

The president acting on the advice of the JSC, can establish a two person tribunal to remove a judicial officer (other than the CJ or PCA). S111(3)
(The two person tribunal should be established by the AG acting on the advice of the JSC. Parliament may then make a motion to dismiss [requiring a 75% majority]after allowing the judicial officer to show cause before the parliament.)

Point 6.

The Solicitor General is appointed on the recommendation of the JSC after consultation with the AG ( s115 (3)
(The recommendation of appointment of an SG should be made by the AG to parliament requiring 50% of support from the house. This should be at arms-length from the JSC )

Point 6.

The Solicitor General can be removed from office on the recommendation of the JSC. (s115 (7) as per s111)
(The recommendation for removal of an SG should be made by the AG to parliament. Parliament may then make a motion for the President to dismiss the SG after allowing the SG to show cause. This should be at arms-length from the JSC. )


Point 7.

The Director of Public prosecutions is appointed on the recommendation of the JSC after consultation with the AG ( s116 (3)
(The recommendation should be made by the AG to parliament requiring 50% of support from the house. This should be at arms-length from the JSC )

Point 8.

The Director of Public Prosecutions can be removed from office on the recommendation of the JSC. (s115 (7)
(The recommendation of removal of the DPP should be made by the AG to parliament. Parliament may then make a motion for the President to dismiss the DPP after allowing the DPP to show cause. This should be at arms-length from the JSC. )

Point 9.

The JSC has authority over all public servants employed in the Judicial Department. S 107
(Judicial Department employees are not judicial officers. They should be dealt with by the Public Service Commission. This is another dangerous and unwarranted precedent.)

Point 10.

FICAC is a stand alone commission of inquiry and not related to the judiciary it should be a chapter in its own right within the constitution. S 114

The Commissioner is appointed by the President on the advice of the Attorney General. (s114(3)
(The Commissioner should be appointed by Parliament on the advice of the AG with 50% support of the House).

Point 11.

Section 114(5) allows the FICAC to conduct criminal proceedings.

This is an extremely dangerous precedent. (The FICAC should not be able to commence criminal proceedings in its own right. It is a commission of inquiry, an INVESTIGATOR NOT A PROSECUTOR. It is not a court of law.
The FICAC as with any standing commission of inquiry. It should conduct investigations (similar to a police service) and then refer its finding to the DPP.)

Point 12.

Under s114(7) the FICAC is subject to the authority of the courts.

(This is hard to interpret. The FICAC should ONLY be answerable to parliament not subject to the authority of the courts, except insofar as they require the courts to approve the exercising of its coercive powers. )


The Nail In the Coffin !

Point 13.

All current judicial officers (including the Solicitor General and Director of Public Prosecutions) will continue in office after the elections ?(s118)

I recall a conversation I had in Sydney with Mr Gates in March 2012. I would swear to the truth of this conversation if I was placed under oath:

I said (words to the effect): If I accept the position (Head of the Legal Practitioners Unit) what happens after the elections. We may all be put up against a wall and shot.

He said (words to the effect): Don’t worry about that. I will ensure that all existing contracts will be honoured by any new government.

How did he know that? You decide for yourselves. (see s118)

SUMMARY

The JSC will hold powers that should be held by parliament alone.
The Chief Justice will continue to be the most powerful man in Fiji, despite potentially committing serious crimes against the justice system. The CJ will be president from time to time. The PM can request the CJ to remove the President? Only the President can remove the CJ?

The Chief Justice controls the hiring and firing of all judicial officers including the Solicitor General and the Director of Public Prosecutions. The DPP and SG cannot be independent under these provisions. They are under the direct and indirect control of the Chief Justice (as Chairman of the JSC).

Each judicial officer is under the control of the Chief Justice (as Chairman of the JSC). They cannot be seen to be independent. They must be under parliamentary control for independence to be achieved.

A proper and transparent JSC should only have the function to investigate and make referrals to parliament in relation to judicial officers ( and not senior statutory positions such as the SG and DPP). It should not have the powers to dismiss any judicial officer which are rubber stamped by the president.

In a properly constituted democracy , the JSC has a the function of investigating a judicial officer and making recommendations to Parliament. It requires parliament to make an address and call the Judicial Officer before the House to show cause. (This has happened on only a few occasions in NSW over the last 100 years).

In a properly constituted democracy the offices of the DPP and Solicitor General should be independent and in no way under the control of the JSC (Chief Justice, PCA and one other).

The Current Chief Justice of Fiji

The Chief Justice is the person most responsible for the displacement of the rule of law in Fiji. He has also destroyed any semblance of the separation of powers doctrine. This did not have to be the case. The Prime Minister gave the Chief Justice free reign to destroy these institutions via decree. The actions of the Chief Justice permeate all aspects of Fiji’s governance.

In my respectful view, current judicial officers, including the Chief Justice, have potentially committed criminal offences, i.e. perverting the course of justice and abuses of power and process. These offences carry terms of imprisonment if guilt is proven. Mr William Marshall has already documented his findings by way of signed petition. If the allegations made by Mr Marshall were investigated and substantiated, the Attorney General and several judicial officers, would likely serve lengthy custodial sentences.

HOW can these Judicial/ legal persons remain with an incoming parliament?

HOW can they be properly investigated?

Under this draft, they cannot be removed or investigated by any incoming parliament. (A backup to the immunity provisions perhaps).

The Chief Justice has not only shielded himself and the Attorney General (and their accomplices) from potential criminal investigation and prosecution, the CJ has drafted a constitution that will allow him to continue to be the most powerful man in Fiji.

Support this Constitution if you want a neo colonial master. Do you want Mr Gates to be your president from time to time? Reject it outright if you want your new parliament to have proper functions, independence, transparency, accountability and powers, i.e. over the DPP, SG and other statutory bodies and commissions.

How will the DPP ever investigate and prosecute Gates. He appoints the DPP and he can terminate the DPP. Let judges judge. Have a constitution that gives the appropriate functions to Parliament and not to one man and two of his “rubber stamp” friends.

I still believe that many of the reforms that have been implemented by the Prime Minister are to be applauded. However, the destruction of the rule of law and judicial process that has been under the delegated power of Mr Gates, undermines these reforms.

The absence of the rule of law and proper structures of transparency and accountability, permeate all levels of Fiji life. This will continue under this proposed constitution. It will make any incoming parliament a toothless tiger. The Prime Minister has allowed the legal draftsman, under the guidance of Gates and the AG, to utterly destroy judicial, SG, and DPP independence.

The continuance of current decrees also continues the lack of independence of the entire legal profession in Fiji. The Chief Registrar has oversight and power over the Legal Profession (Legal Profession Decree 2009.) . The Chief Justice has complete control over the Chief Registrar. How much power can one man have?

I apologise if there are any errors in this report. This report was drafted in haste. I am prepared to provide a more comprehensive and refined report, if the exhortations contained herein do not fall on deaf ears. To those who see what I see, stay strong. The closer Fiji gets to the elections the further away democracy drifts. To those who do not see as I see, I respect you right to make your own choices. I am not attempting to sway opinion. I am merely giving you my initial observations as an independent observer and an advocate for the rule of law.

I do this in my own time at my own expense. I have NO vested interested. I remain banned for life from Fiji after my unlawful arrest and detention at Nadi in November 2012.

If you wish to make Mr Gates the most powerful man in Fiji, then so be it. If you want him to be your president from time to time, so be it.


Greg Bullard 24/3/13
Fiji’s Shortest ever Resident Magistrate (October 2012)

__________________________________________________

It is not too much to say that when the executive has taken over the legislature and the judiciary, the State has become fascist in nature. Effectively, the regime has given itself, the military and the judiciary complete retrospective amnesty and carte blanche for the future...

“And you have that letter of the cardinal?” said D’Artagnan.

“Here it is,” said Athos; and he took the invaluable paper from the pocket of his uniform. D’Artagnan unfolded it with one hand, whose trembling he did not even attempt to conceal, to read:

Dec. 3, 1627

It is by my order and for the good of the state that the bearer of this has done what he has done.

“Richelieu”

“In fact,” said Aramis, “it is an absolution according to rule.”

“That paper must be torn to pieces,” said D’Artagnan, who fancied he read in it his sentence of death.

“On the contrary,” said Athos, “it must be preserved carefully. I would not give up this paper if covered with as many gold pieces.”

Maintaining power simply by force and the corruption of political and judicial controls is as dangerous for the tyrant as for his unfortunate subjects, as Shakespeare's Scottish usurper reflects:

                                          ... But in these cases
We still have judgment here, that we but teach
Bloody instructions, which, being taught, return
To plague the inventor.This even-handed justice
Commends the ingredients of our poison'd chalice
To our own lips.

I have recently compared President Bainimarama's predicament to holding a tiger by the tail; he appears to be persisting in his dangerous course.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

Cyprus: why so timid?

Now that the Cypriot government, at the behest of its European masters, seems about to confiscate a portion of depositors' money, the question arises: why stop there?

Why not take 100% to shore up bank reserves, compensate the former savers by making them the joint shareholders (one share per Euro forfeited), pay the banks' managements a monster bonus to extract all remaining capital value and sell the whole shebang to some large international banking concern for a dollar (to be divided among shareholders)?

Isn't that what is happening all around the West anyway, by degrees and by means of inflation and forced subventions from governments whose members have an eye to their future post-democratic employment selling their contact books to stateless plutocrats?

Why are the Cypriot pussycats so afraid of wetting their paws?

Why become an American?

Read about one Englishman's decision to stand with the Land of the Free, on World Voices here.

Why become an American?

Read about one Englishman's decision to stand with the Land of the Free, on World Voices here.

USA: Taking the Oath

Email from America: 2

The article below was first published in the pages of the Record Courier of Ravenna, Ohio.

 

Why I became an American

Last Friday [April 18, 2008], after nearly 30 years as a British ex-patriate working in the USA, I became an American citizen.

You may wonder why it took me so long. My wife says it’s because I hate change; I like to think it’s because I want to make the right decision.

I thought about it seriously, because it’s saying goodbye as well as hello. I had to swear in front of a Federal judge that my father’s birthplace and my mother’s adopted country would no longer be ‘home’.

But thanks to my friends and family, I realize that this is the best ‘home’ I’ve ever had. Americans value the individual, even when his views, like mine, are unorthodox. Here, in my homestead in Northeast Ohio, surrounded by my friends and family, I fit in better than I ever did while growing up. And now, I belong.

There are things I miss about England, of course, but most of them are just memories: quiet pubs that served ‘warm’ beer; fish and chips wrapped in newspaper; the selective university system that gave me a great education. Now, those pubs and chip shops have become noisy night clubs and McDonalds, and as for college, I remember how brutal it was for those who couldn’t succeed immediately. Here in America, the system gives you a second chance.

Most of all, I miss the English bloody-mindedness, the determination to push back against stupid rules; but that is also mostly gone. As the British government tightens restrictions on personal freedom, few people protest, and the mechanisms to fight back just aren’t there. As my brother frequently reminds me, we in the U.S. have a written Constitution, and a legal system willing to support it and challenge the government on our behalf. In fact, we have the best of the English tradition right here, alive and feisty.

Now that I’m an American, I will have to make some changes. I can’t say ‘you Americans’ any more; though I refuse to delete the ‘u’ in ‘colour’, or to stop pronouncing ‘garage’ the way I do. But I can still weigh in pounds and ounces, pump gas in gallons and measure height in feet and inches; which is more than my English brother can do.

And, I will finally be able to participate in that greatest of all American entertainments, a national election.

As for the future, I will always remember the Judge’s speech at our ceremony, where he quoted President Reagan: “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same”. I intend to do my best to honour that commitment.

Tim is a math professor in Ohio.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

USA: The Immigrant

Email from America: 1
 

This series of pieces is a humble homage to ‘Letters from America’ by the late, great Alistair Cooke, who took the Oath of Allegiance in 1941 and whose life’s mission thereafter was to present the American experience to the rest of the world.

I first visited the US in December 1977, and moved here in June 1978. Since then I have lived in Northern Ohio, part of what is called the ‘Midwest’. Looking at a map will go a long way to explaining our local thinking.  But Ohio is by many measures a very average state, which explains the media’s interest in us only every four years, during the national elections. What we see here is as average  'American' as it gets.

Much of my free time has been spent trying to understand this society, and after 35 years it’s still a work in progress. It’s not a coincidence that a leading satirical website is called The Onion, because our culture has many layers, and will bring tears to the eyes.

For all that, like Cooke and millions of other newcomers, I’ve made it my country. To the often ill-concealed pleasure of our national enemies and allies, we’re expert at flaunting our faults and divisions. I shall explore these in future posts, but I also hope to show you some of the virtues that our critics seem more reluctant to learn.

Tim is an English-born math professor and lecturer on gambling strategies.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

Animation: If wild animals ate fast food

htp: Scroblene, via A K Haart

Energy supply disruption as a future weapon of war

Read the latest instalment of Nick Drew's powerful and disturbing analysis on the Energy Page here.

Energy supply disruption as a future weapon of war

Read the latest instalment of Nick Drew's powerful and disturbing analysis on the Energy Page here.

Securing Energy Supply (3): Geo-political Threats in War and Peace

We have considered the interruptions to our energy supplies that can arise from the 21st century problem of intermittency of wind-produced electricity, and from the more traditional local threats of strikes, protests and other nations’ willingness to interfere with cross-border trade on protectionist grounds. But we remarked that, however disruptive these have been and can be in future, they are mere nuisances compared to the prospect of strategic geo-political actions taken with the deliberate aim of depriving us of the energy upon which our civilisation has come to depend.

At the most apocalyptic and obvious end of the spectrum is war.

By the time of WW1, oil had become essential to industry and naval warfare and, unlike the equally vital coal, was frequently obtained via lengthy supply chains with shipping often a vital link. Thus, blockading Britain’s supplies of imported oil, as much as food and metal ores, was a major strategic goal of German war policy and, as later in WW2, they came close to succeeding with their Atlantic naval actions against British shipping.  As late as the end of 1943 - even with the USA having been in the war two years - the UK almost ran out of oil.  Both nations put in huge efforts to build up oil supply networks, including innovative operational techniques such as the PLUTO system under the Channel to sustain invasion operations in Normandy.

For Germany itself in WW2, accessing oil resources became a primary early goal, and its thrusts into the oilfields of Romania, and then towards the Caucasus, were undertaken for this purpose.  When the attempts to take Baku failed, it was forced to go to extreme lengths to develop synthetic fuels and lubricants.  Both Speer and Eisenhower asserted that Germany lost the war primarily because by 1944 it was unable effectively to fuel its armour and airforce. On the opposing side Russia undertook extraordinary efforts to maintain constant supplies of oil to its fronts at Leningrad and Stalingrad, under the heroic engineer Nikolai Konstantinovich Baibakov, the Soviet Union's last living Commissar.  

Control over energy supplies – or their destruction - was a central aspect in many other theatres of 20th century warfare, and would be again in future. Oil has been and remains at least one critical factor in Western military engagements in the Middle East; and China is acutely aware of its own dependence on imported energy. Self-sufficiency in oil is a long-standing American obsession.

There is a sense in which the vulnerability of energy supplies was not very interesting during the Cold War, when both sides were able to project vast destructive power at a distance. So what if the USA was well supplied with local oil ? These supplies were still vulnerable to Russian attack, and vice-versa, with large and totally static targets such as nuclear power plants and gas pipelines still more at risk. In such a scenario, ‘self-sufficiency’ is more of a logistical detail than a strategic guarantor of continuous energy supply.

But with the advent of ‘asymmetric warfare’ which is likely to characterise future conflicts, the whole question becomes altogether more interesting. If your major foes are unlikely to mount a direct physical assault on your domestic supply lines - either because they do not have the capability [Iran], or do not choose to conduct hostile operations in that manner [China], then keeping energy supplies local may very well offer significant advantages compared to the vulnerability of more extended, external lines of logistics which can be subject to a plethora of debilitating indirect actions and pin-prick attacks.  An act of unattributable piracy here, a small distant pipeline rupture there ... much more secure if your supplies originate close to home, and travel short distances across friendly territory.  We shall return to self-sufficiency in the next post in this series.

If war seems an extreme contingency for energy planning today (and you'll struggle to find much evidence of it being taken into account in current UK government energy thinking), then we surely cannot fail to give serious consideration to the great external political threats that have actually impacted on Western energy supplies in the past few decades.  At the less critical end of the spectrum has been the collateral disruption inflicted on European customers for Russian gas whenever their disputes with the Ukraine spilled over into actual interruption of supplies.  These short-lived but uncomfortable episodes have always happened in winter, and have seen serious short-term disruption for Eastern Europe and countries such as Italy, whose winter gas comes significantly or perhaps entirely from Russia, and whose strategic gas inventories are rapidly depleted.

While few imagine this is anything more sinister than a rather casual Russian attitude to the consequences for innocent bystanders, it has caused many nations to maintain higher gas inventories than would otherwise be necessary for operational reasons alone, and has been one of the reasons why countries like Poland are working hard to diversify their sources of gas (there are other reasons at work, too.  At the same time it is fair to point out that Russia has made, and continues actively to make large investments on pipelines that outflank the Ukrainian problem, first to the North and then to the South: they have no desire to be known as a politically unreliable supplier.)

By far the biggest political assault on the West's energy supplies was of course the OAPEC oil embargo, the 40th anniversary of which will be upon us soon.  Explicitly a hostile geo-political move, it was directed against selected Western countries - notably the USA and the Netherlands - in retaliation for the support given to Israel in the Yom Kippur war.  This disruption over several months (long after actual fighting had ceased) was colossal: and the economic effects damaging and long-lasting.  Of course, it also resulted in various large-scale initiatives at the global strategic level to prevent or counter such actions, which we shall consider in the next post.

So geo-political threats to security of energy supply falling short of outright war have been manifest in the past, including once on a truly strategic scale with immense consequences.  If these things have happened before - particularly when the Big One was triggered by volatility in the Middle East, which is hardly ever off the radar - then prudent politicians and planners must contemplate the possibility they could happen again.  And they do.

In part 4 we will consider the steps that can be taken to guard against threats to the security of our energy supply. 

[ Continues ]


All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

New stories on Broad Oak's pages

On World Voices: tension excalating in Fiji and Slogmaster John Ward in France; on the Energy Page, Nick Drew reports how EDF is dunning the British Government for huge subsidies and guaranteed profits - with the Daily Telegraph giving the French the oxygen of publicity.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

New stories on Broad Oak's pages

On World Voices: tension excalating in Fiji and Slogmaster John Ward in France; on the Energy Page, Nick Drew reports how EDF is dunning the British Government for huge subsidies and guaranteed profits - with the Daily Telegraph giving the French the oxygen of publicity.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Fiji: Bainimarama has a tiger by the tail

All in the same boat

Friday's Daily Mail article about the vicious mistreatment of escaped prisoners in Fiji is throwing sparks into the parched political underbrush. Although the story - based on a widely-viewed YouTube video uploaded on 4 March - appears to relate to events from last year, its publication comes at a very sensitive time, as the militaristic Bainimarama regime prepares to introduce a new Constitution. The mainstream coverage is now feeding back into local blogs like this one.

Washington-based consultants Qorvis have been working with the Fijian Government. In the face of this latest PR disaster they have yet to issue a public statement, but the day before the Mail piece came out Fiji Sun journalist Graham Davis was playing down the incident, placing it in the context of the long-standing culture of physical violence in Fiji and referencing similar police outrages in Australia, South Africa and the USA. Buried in the footnotes is the disclosure that he is a "regional adviser to Qorvis" (since when?)

Davis' spinning is a little too enthusiastic, perhaps, describing the September 2012 Naboro Prison breakout by five inmates as seeing "much of Suva terrorised" and opining that "many law abiding Fijians actually like being ruled with an iron fist if it means being able to sleep soundly in their beds at night". But thanks to past British interference, particularly in the matter of importing thousands of indentured labourers from India under terms that ensured most would settle permanently, Fiji is racially divided and prone to coup and counter-coup. In its way, it is the Northern Ireland of the South Pacific.

Accordingly, Australia is warning travellers in Suva to "exercise a high degree of caution"; New Zealand says "there is some risk to your security"; the USA advises "exercise caution" and "avoid demonstrations and large crowds, remembering that even peaceful demonstrations can turn violent unexpectedly."

The UK is more sanguine ("No restrictions in this travel advice") while counselling that "travellers should exercise caution and monitor the local situation for developments. Avoid all political rallies and avoid openly discussing political issues." Good old FCO; doubtless Our Man in Suva will be on hand with tea and crumpets for stranded Brits when the war-clubs get pulled out of the thatch. But the prize for innocence abroad goes to the Saturday Evening Post's travelogue "Fabulous Fiji", which keeps its goggly eyes focused on kava, coral and cannibalism (rendered cute by time).

Back in the real world, Qorvis declares on behalf of its client that "The Government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama, is currently in the process of drafting a new constitution, one that will enable the country's first-ever truly democratic elections: one person, one vote, one value." The "path to true democracy", as it calls this, has a road-block in the form of the regime's January decree on party political registration, designed (illegally in the opinion of international lawyers) to exclude much of the opposition including Mick Beddoes, leader of the United People's Party until the decree banned it (and the Fiji Labour Party is similarly threatened, according to the same link).

Another block to progress is the fact that the government scrapped a draft Constitution in the same month, after nearly a year of consultation. The proposed arrangement would have restricted the powers of the military. The regime has designed a version more to its own liking and Commodore Bainimarama says the new draft is now before him and will be submitted to the Constituent Assembly once the "bit of a problem with the registration of political parties" has been resolved.

The situation is decidedly ugly. Thousands of Indian descent have fled Fiji in the turmoil of recent years, and ethnic Fijians have more than doubled their numbers since 1966. The immediate postwar ethnic balance (about 46% each) has changed to 57% Fijian / 38% Indian. The perception of Bainimarama as heading a dwindling and partisan minority makes the task of reconciliation extremely challenging, especially when the incumbent President seems determined to use methods calculated to inflame his domestic opposition and defy foreign legal and media opinion.

Some current blogs and sites:

http://cafepacific.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.coupfourandahalf.com/

http://crosbiew.blogspot.co.uk/

http://discombobulatedbubu.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.fijicoup2006.com/

http://fdnblog.wordpress.com/

http://www.fijidemocracynow.com/

http://mbfiji.blogspot.co.uk/

http://luveiviti.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.flp.org.fj/

http://fijimediawars.blogspot.co.nz/

http://fijisilenced.blogspot.co.uk/

http://fijitoday.wordpress.com/

http://fijiuncensored.wordpress.com/

http://fijigirl.wordpress.com/

http://www.fijileaks.com/blog.html

http://goodmenandwomendoingsomething.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.grubsheet.com.au/

http://illegalcoup2006.wordpress.com/

http://intelligentsiya.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.jokesonthejunta.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.matavuvale.com/

http://michaelfield.org/

http://nadinafijitruth.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.pacificfreedomforum.org/

http://www.realfijinews.com/

http://solivakasama.net/

http://tearsforfiji.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.thetorturewatch.com/fiji-news.html

http://www.truthforfiji.com/news.html

http://victorlal.blogspot.co.uk/

http://narseyonfiji.wordpress.com/

Most of the above are anti-government - please help us if you know of others that will serve as a counter-balance.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

Feeding Frenzy at the Subsidy Trough

The EDF nuclear subsidy game rumbles on with another batch of orchestrated leaks. The stakes could hardly be higher.

And haven't the lobbyists and briefers been busy ! How convenient that the Telegraph can always be persuaded to publish their radioactive releases. From the EDF camp, we learn that unless HMG comes up with the readies (well, forces electricity bill-payers to come up with the readies), not only will there be no EDF nukes for the UK, the Japs will pull out too - along with every potential developer of UK infrastructure ! “'No big infrastructure investor will ever trust the Government again' if that happens, is the bleak verdict of one industry insider" - quoth the ever-helpful Telegraph. The whippers-in have indeed been out in force. Every b*****d wants a monster subsidy: who'd have guessed ?

So stick that in your pipe, David Cameron. And not just lots of readies are required, mind - it must be a 40-year deal, and government under-writing for the capital costs, and indemnity for EDF on cost over-runs. And to think all they wanted just a couple of short years ago was a carbon-price floor (already long-since delivered and banked, of course).

The government side wants it to be known that, err, they are prepared to walk away if they can't get a 'good deal' - such tough negotiators, eh ? - and will certainly keep the nameplate price lower than £100/MWh. But we all know this is fairly arbitrary when 40-year indexed-linked games are being played, and so much is on offer by way of guarantees. "The truth is likely to become much clearer in the next few weeks", opines the Telegraph. How very trusting.

Whatever we get to know about the dirty deal, it will go straight into the long grass of an EC State Aid review, and there will be no binding commitment from EDF for, oooh, 18 months minimum. So - no start-up until 2022 earliest ? Which means in turn that all the practical problems of keeping the lights on post the LCPD shut-downs will have to be solved without new nukes. Which means ...

It was not always thus.  A mere decade ago there was a parallel issue in UK natural gas: North Sea gas production was forecast to decline to the extent that new import sources would be needed from around 2005. The UK government had played a clever strategic hand several years earlier, but otherwise stood back and let the market work. Sure enough, the companies that make up the UK gas industry invested in sufficient new import pipelines and LNG import facilities to replace the declining North Sea production entirely, if needed (which it won't be for several years yet). Invested. Their own money, with no subsidies !

They did so because (a) there was a clear business case, and (b) there was no hint that subsidies might be forthcoming if they just held back a bit. Happy days.

[This post first appeared on Capitalists@Work]


All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

France: John Ward back up and fighting

Major UK blogger John Ward has just moved from Devon to south-west France, and is bringing the farmhouse up to scratch. But he still finds time to continue his furious examination of the worlds of finance and politics, which are so interlinked, corrupt and disastrous that he reflects on the survivalist advantages of his new home:

Over the last few days, it has become unnecessary here to have the main log-burner on 24/7, while sporting thermal underwear in bed at night. Today I didn’t actually light the fire at all until 7pm, and even now at 10 pm it is bubbling along without bashing out too much heat. The winters here are fierce, but short. This one has been longer than most, but it is at last releasing its frigid grip: buds are budding, winds are warming, and daffodils are flowering. You never know, it just might be Spring.

I’m still fixing things up. The last and most truculent floodlight has finally given up its resistance to my efforts to make it work, and is as I speak shining a light towards the old pig-sties down at the bottom of the front garden. There was an anxious moment when I had to figure out how to chisel a route through the door-jamb minus available chisels, given I lack a three-foot drill to go through the walls. But a steady hand and a hammer applied to a knackered old screwdriver did the trick. There was an even more stressful moment when – having rewired the obstinate little bastard – just prior to screwing it into the external masonry – it decided not to work. But then the kitchen lights flickered back on again, and I realised we’d had a power cut without me noticing. So all is well.

My neighbour Ange came up yesterday. He’d heard the gossip about Jan and I, so was keen to know what was what. One thing that never ceases to stagger me about apparently rigid old French agrarians is how – when you go through the “sh*t happens” explanation of life – far from offering sour disapproval, they seem keen to sympathise, to help, and to discuss the philosophy of marriage, emotions, or indeed anything else you care to bring up. On a day-to-day basis I have very little in c0mmon with the local French farmers, but beyond tractors and seed costs you can (with perseverance) plug into deeper concerns. Ange’s wife Michelle, for instance, is a keen fan of certain French writers. Once I’d discovered her passion for Georges Simenon and Molière, we never looked back. Five years ago an undiscovered Dumas novel was unearthed, and so it was my great pleasure to give Michelle an internet link to the prose. We have also prepared melons together for charity dinners in aid of Mali, but perhaps I should draw a discreet veil over that.

Tomorrow the replacement dishwasher and the serviced/repaired tractor mower are due to make an appearance. I rather fancy that soon after this point, things will return to something approaching normal. Window boxes will be filled and watered, windfall kindling gathered up, water retainers reinstigated, and guests prodded to confirm arrival dates.

Of course, in the macro boulevards of all those financial centres beyond Slogger’s Roost II, things will continue to be perversely abnormal. The Dow will go up instead of down, Gold will go down instead of up, silver up instead of down, the euro up against Sterling and down against the Dollar, and the US, UK and Eurozone debts up and up and up and up. But to the folks down here, none of it really matters. One of the undeniable things about France is that it has the biggest land area per head of population and highest proportion of cultivable in-use land in the entire EU. So if every currency, bond, bank, and bourse goes tits up, the French will still have more than enough to eat.

Should we feel resentful about this? No of course we shouldn’t: rather, we should feel anger about our own UK élites’ inability to understand such basics. With careful thought, Britain could’ve continued to make things and poured investment into those people who wish to grow things. France still makes cars and exports them very profitably. It still plans crops to produce cheap bread – and produces enough milk, meat, fruit and wine to keep everyone cruising along nicely. It still has the best cheeses in the world.

There are major bits of French culture (for example, pharmacy advice and the tax system) that continue to confuse and worry me. But when it comes to the price of lunch, bread, beer, wine, fresh veg, wonderful tomatoes and magret de canard, down here in the South West it is hard to fault the way they live. The sense of community, the familial glue and the lack of crime all bear witness to an achievement which, let’s face it, Britain cannot even begin to imagine.Will the British ever be true Europeans? Within the confines of the EU, I very much doubt it. We are an island seafaring race obsessed with the idea that we might still have some major global role to play.In the banking sector, we do. But is that a role we should want to embrace? I would emphatically say no: the UK’s future prosperity lies in making high-quality items and then knowing how to market them in an equalising world. My instinct is to stay close to Britain, but my insight tells me that Britain has forgotten how to stay close to itself.

This post originally appeared here and is reproduced with the kind permission of the author. John Ward's current blog is here and the archives of his previous one (Not Born Yesterday) are here. Writing since 2006, John is prolific, sparky and always informative.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Djibouti: When giving is taking

Recently, Emily in Sierra Leone confronted burglars who had been her friends. What made the crowd gasp most was not her overlooking the theft, but her offer to continue the friendship. She comments, "Just goes to show you how they are more relationally minded than money minded."

On the other side of the continent, Rachel Pieh Jones was finding out how quickly money undermines those values:

My language helper…

Before she worked for me:

One day her son fell into the open, coal-burning fire pit and burned his hand. Neighbors heard the screams, ran for help, and within minutes the boy was in a car zooming toward the Djiboutian hospital. Someone paid the entrance fee. Someone else paid the taxi. Someone else brought meals while he healed. Someone else watched the other children. Someone else covered her hours mopping in the Minister for Sports’ office…

After she started working for me:

Her uncle died and the family needed money for the burial. “Get it from your American friend,” her brother said.

That same brother owed money to a Kenyan. “Get it from your American friend,” he said.

Her son fell off a wall at school and needed stitches. “Get the money from your American friend,” her neighbors said.

Read the rest of Rachel's guest post on Jessica Goudeau's website, "Love is what you do".

Both Rachel and Emily think deeply about their actions and don't necessarily expect the world to pat their heads and cheer them on. They are prepared to take risks and lose if need be.

Not just emotionally: at another point in her blog Emily tells us, "I've already researched how to make sure they do NOT send in any Special Forces to rescue me if I decide to be an idiot and stay when things get bad."

Extract reproduced with the kind permission of Rachel and Jessica. All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

Two great new stories on World Voices!

The smells of New York City, and how a Christian girl confronted Muslim burglars in Sierra Leone.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

Two great new stories on World Voices!

The smells of New York City, and how a Christian girl confronted Muslim burglars in Sierra Leone.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

USA: New York Nose Nav

Since moving to New York I have developed a rather odd and disgusting skill of being able to differentiate between the smells of the city. Not the nice ones, like freshly baked bagels or cupcakes, or even hot dogs (I know they are gross, but why do they always smell so good?), but the bad ones. The really gross, I don't even want to know what that is, kind of smells. I can differentiate between dog, cat and horse pooh. I can smell a homeless person a block away and know the difference between the smell of vomit and garbage. Lovely.

Unfortunately, New York is a very smelly city. What with the rubbish being piled high on the streets and most public areas being used at dog toilets (I think it's worst on the Upper West Side and in Chelsea), my new heightened sense of smell had come in useful on occasion. I have managed to avoid (although not always) treading in various sorts of pooh, side-stepped a rather large pile of well-disguised puke and narrowly missed getting on a subway carriage with a homeless guy who last washed in 1987. I also know the stinkiest streets to avoid in my neighbourhood and the best place to stand at my local subway station.

A strong stomach definitely comes in handy when you live here, but I prefer to try an avoid the nasty smells when I can. I have learnt a lot about living in New York over the past 2 1/2 years, but I can safely say that being able to tell the difference between animal pooh isn't something I thought would come in useful!

Reproduced with the kind permission of the author, whose blog is here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

Sierra Leone: Forgiveness

Emily heard the religious call while in high school, put herself through medical training and left Oregon to work as a nurse in post civil war Sierra Leone. This is how she reacted to a break-in:

I arrived in Sierra Leone on Jan. 21^st but stayed near Freetown for about a week before I went up to the village where I work. While I was in Freetown I got a curious call from my neighbor, asking when I was coming back up. It seems that some people had broken into my house, stolen some things and were being held at the police station, awaiting my return.

 

When I dug around a little to find out who it was, my heart was a little bit broken. I had been pretty close to three of the boys before they left the village to go to Freetown. When I had girls teaching me to cook, I would call these boys to come help me eat the rice. After we ate we would all have game night. We had a scoreboard on my wall keeping track of how many times each of us lost at Jenga and they were often at my house when the lights were on so they could study. I’d thought we were close. Definitely NOT the first thing I wanted to deal with when I got back!

 

Since I had a couple days before I was going up (and they were still waiting for a couple more boys to be brought from Freetown), I started thinking and praying about how I was going to handle it. The neighbor who called me to inform me of this was devastated!! One of the boys was in his custody. When he called me he so angry he was almost in tears. He said that he was not raising a thief and wanted to take this as far as it could go in the court system. He was mad!

 

I understood. What happened was extremely shameful for him in the eyes of the community. He said that this boy was “trying to spoil my job here” and I later found out that this was because some people thought he should move on because if he hadn’t been there, the boy wouldn’t have been there and this wouldn’t have happened. It was serious!

 

But I wasn’t really sure what I wanted to do. One of my biggest pet peeves here is that it often feels like there aren’t any real consequences when a wrong is done. People show up late for work or don’t show up on time and nothing’s done. Security guards sleep all night….nothing. Policemen are constantly asking for bribes and everyone looks the other way. It’s just constant. And it drives me crazy. I tend to be a pretty black and white person (which can often be to my own detriment….I’m working on the balance) but this kind of thing is a never ending frustration for me.

 

What to do, what to do. Wouldn’t you know that the day after I found out what happened, I ran across this verse : “To have lawsuits at all with one another is already a defeat for you. Why not rather suffer wrong? Why not rather be defrauded?”

I had a few things stolen from my house. The biggest item was a computer. I was an idiot and decided to leave my little netbook computer at the house since I didn’t think I’d need it while I was home. There were also a few missing headlamps, a bag, an internet modem and some notebooks. (These were the things that were recovered….I have no idea if there were other things missing. I’m just that organized).

 

When I was home, I saw Les Miserables for the first time. I didn’t know the story before I entered the theatre and I spent the majority of the movie near convulsions as I was sobbing so hard. It was weird. It was really weird. Even after it was over I was so affected that I couldn’t stop crying. So of course one of the first things I think about is the priest. (Slight spoiler alert if you haven’t seen it!) That beloved old priest who gave food and shelter to a man who later stole all his silver. When the police brought the man back with the stolen silver the priest said, “No. It’s not stolen. I gave him that silver. Here, you forgot these candlesticks. There was no crime here.” The man’s life was changed forever!

 

I don’t know what the right thing to do every time something like this happens. Obviously there have to be consequences when evil occurs. But in this instance, I knew what I wanted to do.

I arrived in the village and the next morning went to the police station with a couple of my friends. My stomach was in knots, knowing I had to confront these boys and not sure how the community was going to accept what I wanted to do. Bleh. I hate confrontation!

When I arrived I asked to speak to the boys. The policemen were a little surprised but agreed to bring them out. As everything here seems to go, there was very little privacy and I had about 20-30 people watching while I talked to them. Oh gosh.

 

As the six boys filed out, the three that I had been close with wouldn’t make eye contact with me. They stood in a line in front of me and I began talking. I was nervous because they wanted me to try and speak Krio and in vulnerable situations like this I always want to speak English!! But I whispered a prayer for help and started muddling my way through.

I started by telling them that when I’d heard that someone had broken in and stolen some things from my house, I’d been angry. I needed those things! I needed them to do my job, to communicate with my family back home, and to help others in the community learn about computers. But when I found out who was involved, I became more sad than angry. I reminded them of the times we’d spent together (imagine little gasps and “shame, shame’s”coming from the peanut gallery). We’d been close.

 

Then I told them about the verses I’d read right after I found out what happened and how this had turned my thoughts to Jesus. Jesus. My Precious One who has forgiven me of so much. How could I not forgive when I’d been forgiven of so much? It was inconceivable. I talked our relationship with God that had been broken until Jesus came to restore it. He showed us, he showed ME mercy and forgiveness when I was his enemy. And that’s Who I love and that’s Who I follow.

 

I pulled out the charger for the computer (that had been with me so they hadn’t taken it) and handed it over to them. I then pulled out the money that remained in order for them to be released from jail and gave it to the chief policeman. And I told them it was finished. They were forgiven. The things they’d stolen were theirs to keep. It wasn’t because I didn’t need them, but it was because I love Jesus and therefore love them and want our relationship to be restored. And as far as I was concerned, it was. We were fine and they were welcome at my house any time (this is where I got the biggest gasp from the crowd. Just goes to show you how they are more relationally minded than money minded).

 

I told them that I recognized that what I was doing was dangerous. There was a chance that they would come back and steal again. There was a chance that others would hear about the grace extended and would also come to my house and break in, believing that there would be no repercussions. But Grace is dangerous. The grace that God extends to us can be (and often is) not accepted, mocked or abused. But I trust that God will be the defender of my rights. If people keep breaking in and taking my things….God, who can do anything He wants, STOP anyone He wants doesn’t think I really need those things. And one day, God will make everything right. Until then, I will trust Him to defend my rights. So that was that.

I’m not really sure how the boys took it. They didn’t say anything. One guy piped up and said, “You see? This is the difference between you Christians and we Muslims. We don’t forgive like this. We would never forgive like this!” Of course that’s not true. I know many Muslims who are very forgiving*. But I was so so SO excited to see that they saw Jesus in this, and not just my white skin! So often the things I do are just attributed to my “being white” than to my “following Jesus”and I had been begging God to let them see Him. I was so glad that some did!

 

So that was that. My little bit of village drama to start off my third year. I was hesitant to share this because….it just feels weird. But I was so excited about Jesus showing up that I couldn’t resist. It’s such an adventure to follow Him!

 

(*Ed: as shown in this incident - and this.)

The above is a slightly shortened and edited version of the original, which is on Emily's blog here. Reproduced with the kind permission of the author.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.

Nick Drew: Politics and future power cuts

Read the next instalment of Nick's disturbing analysis of energy supply threats here on the Energy Page.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Nick Drew: Politics and future power cuts

Read the next instalment of Nick's disturbing analysis of energy supply threats here on the Energy Page.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Securing Energy Supply (2): Politically-Driven Disruptions

In the first part of this series we noted that the provision of oil, gas and particularly electricity, reliably and continuously on demand, is a considerable, if overlooked practical achievement.  We further remarked that the days when this can be taken for granted as regards electricity may be numbered in markets where significant amounts of wind-generated capacity are to be accommodated - and that if anyone doubts this, they are invited to follow developments in Germany as it struggles to maintain feasibility.

However, physical reliability is in the gift of the engineers, market-designers and policy-makers: if the populace wants it (and they really, really do), they can vote for it, pay for it, and it will be delivered.  We know what it takes and it is in our own hands.

What is not within our collective control is the political will of some to see our supply disrupted: and it is to security of supply against political contingencies that we now turn.

This lot like coal

Internal threats to energy security are not necessarily the main focus of macro energy policy, but anyone who lived through the UK miners' strikes of 1972, 1974 and 1984-5 will recall how disruptive they can be.  On this blog, Sackerson has drawn attention to concerns being raised in this connection arising from the Government's planned sale into commercial ownership of its Pipeline and Storage System, which delivers a significant proportion of the UK's aviation fuel direct to airports and military airfields, as well as much gasoline and diesel to various depots. The GPSS is fairly invulnerable to the periodic tanker-driver strikes that have bedevilled the UK - but how secure will it be in private-sector hands?

Nor are labour disputes the end of the matter.  In the period 2008-2010, 'green' protesters laid siege to a power plant site at Kingsnorth in Kent, with the aim of stopping the development of a new high-tech coal-fired power plant, and they can fairly claim to have been a major factor, if not the only one, in the cancellation of that project.  Hostilities resumed again last year, with the week-long occupation of a site in Nottinghamshire, to the end of preventing the commissioning of another new power station - this time a nearly-completed gas-fired plant.  These UK manifestations are nothing compared to the actions of German eco-warriors who regularly wreak havoc on all manner of electricity sector operations.

This lot don't

With an eye on the future, many commentators see great potential vulnerability in the 'smart grid' and 'smart metering' systems that are being planned in the power sectors of most advanced economies.  Designed to facilitate real-time information-flow and control across entire grids down to the level of individual meters, these systems are believed to be inherently vulnerable to malicious hacking for criminal or political purposes.

The kind of political purposes envisioned are generally held to be cyber-warfare waged by hostile nations; and in the same context, countries such as the USA prevent Chinese investors from taking stakes in energy infrastructure (and other deemed 'strategic' facilities).  The UK has a long history of being open to foreign investments in its energy sector: the greater part of UK gas and power supply is in the hands of German, French and Spanish companies, and Far- and Middle-Eastern investors hold many stakes in the energy industry here.  The question of our openness to Chinese and Russian investment is yet to be confronted in a specific case; but given that the government is actively courting Chinese investment (inter alia) in putative new (French-built) nuclear plants in this country, it would seem likely that the answer will be 'welcome'.

We have found ourselves contemplating geo-political concerns under the heading of 'internal threats' to energy supplies, which leads us naturally to external political threats.  We will start at the least apocalyptic end of the spectrum and consider political factors that can disrupt the normal flow of cross-border energy trade.  The UK is a nation long wedded to free trade, and we often fail to realise how much less enthusiastic about it even our close EU neighbours are.

 In particular, when it comes to energy, most other European countries will ban exports at the drop of a hat if they deem their own supplies are 'at risk' which, in the case of France, can mean simply that gas storage facilities are not completely full.  Of course, banning exports makes a mockery of economic notions that cross-border interconnections and price-following free trade maximises the efficient allocation of a scarce resource.  But other nations just don't believe in that, when push comes to shove.  Thus, in winter 2004 when a short cold-weather snap hit and the price of UK spot gas rose to a much higher level than French prices, ordinarily one would have expected increased flows from France to the UK, until either the pipeline capacity was full, or prices equalised.  In fact, the French regulator instructed French gas companies to pay whatever price was needed to top up already almost-full French storage.  As a consequence, French prices leapfrogged those of the UK and gas was exported from short-of-gas Britain to plentifully-supplied France.

Needless to say, there are two strongly-held sides to the doctrinal argument here, and for now we simply record the issue.  France is not the only country that has behaved in this way: for many years Germany has imported almost as much gas from the Netherlands and Norway as from Russia.  Traditionally, if you were to ask a German gas company which of their main supplier-nations was the least reliable, they would say the Dutch who, when they have production problems, prioritise their local customer-base at the expense of exports.  (The Russians, of course, with perennial needs for hard currency, would cheerfully cut off their local customers to maintain exports - at least until the spring of 2012 when Putin was facing an election, and for the first time cut exports to maintain local supplies.)   

The politically-based disruptions to energy supplies we have considered here - strikes, green protests, protectionism in times of shortage - can be bad enough.  But they are a mere inconvenience as compared to the prospect of large-scale, systematic withholding or blockading of energy deliveries for strategic geopolitical ends.  We have seen it before; and we fear it happening again.  It is to this we turn next.

[ Continues to Part 3 ]


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