It was apparent five or six years ago that credit card debt, mortgage borrowing and house prices were rising too fast.
Howard Flight, in today's Daily Mail.
As they break cover to make themselves appear wise now, you may care to amuse yourself by compiling a list of those who knew at the time, and didn't say.
Monday, November 10, 2008
All in the same boat
Mish notes that because it's a global crash, everyone is printing money and the relative value of the dollar has not plummeted as many expected:
... Looking ahead, it is quite possible that if all pegs were removed and the Renmimbi allowed to freely float, that the Renmimbi, not the US dollar would crash. Certainly the pound could crash (I think that is likely), and the EU might even break up.
... Looking ahead, it is quite possible that if all pegs were removed and the Renmimbi allowed to freely float, that the Renmimbi, not the US dollar would crash. Certainly the pound could crash (I think that is likely), and the EU might even break up.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
FDIC underfunded
Two more US banks have just failed, bringing the total this year to 19:
The FDIC estimates that through 2013 there will be about $40 billion in losses to the deposit insurance fund, including an $8.9 billion loss from the failure of IndyMac Bank. The FDIC is raising insurance premiums paid by banks and thrifts to replenish its fund, which now stands at around $45.2 billion, below the minimum target level set by Congress and the lowest level since 2003.
The current target (the "Designated Reserve Ratio") is 1.25% of deposits and is discussed here. According to Mish on July 23, insured deposits in the US banking system totalled $4.24 trillion, which if unchanged now would mean the FDIC current funds represent 1.066% of the sum insured, s0 the FDIC needs to raise another c. $8 billion in premiums from banks.
The question remains, whether merely 1.25% is sufficient for present and foreseeable circumstances. Dr Marc Faber is now talking about eventual US inflation and State bankruptcy - after a near-term rally.
The FDIC estimates that through 2013 there will be about $40 billion in losses to the deposit insurance fund, including an $8.9 billion loss from the failure of IndyMac Bank. The FDIC is raising insurance premiums paid by banks and thrifts to replenish its fund, which now stands at around $45.2 billion, below the minimum target level set by Congress and the lowest level since 2003.
The current target (the "Designated Reserve Ratio") is 1.25% of deposits and is discussed here. According to Mish on July 23, insured deposits in the US banking system totalled $4.24 trillion, which if unchanged now would mean the FDIC current funds represent 1.066% of the sum insured, s0 the FDIC needs to raise another c. $8 billion in premiums from banks.
The question remains, whether merely 1.25% is sufficient for present and foreseeable circumstances. Dr Marc Faber is now talking about eventual US inflation and State bankruptcy - after a near-term rally.
Like I said
I've said more than once, including in my latest letter to the Spectator, the notion that the East is going to suffer from the slump as badly as the West needs some qualification. It's what happens after the slump that will be decisive, and the East has the gear and skilled people to lead the way out, as the Telegraph reports:
Arcelor, being three times larger than its nearest rival, Japan's Nippon Steel, and sharing 10 pc of the industry's global sales, wields huge power to determine what happens to prices and production. In the medium to longer term, Mr Mittal expects the industry to bounce back sharply as the pace of industrialisation in China and India picks up again.
In China, billionaire Shagang steel magnate Shen Wenrong has also planned for the coming downturn. In fact he's not even cutting his prices, since (I surmise) his game plan is that his over-leveraged competitors are going to go bust and customers will have to come to him anyway.
This is smart, counter-intuitive strategy for dealing with a recession. Those who try to survive by cutting margins will get skinny and become more vulnerable to delayed delivery by cash-strapped suppliers, bad-debt customers, and shark bigger-business customers that deliberately pay late to force your business under and then buy your goods from the official receiver at a 90% discount.
In a really post-industrial economy, we in the UK and USA will discover the disadvantages of being run by money-grows-on-trees lawyers, box-it-all-up-and-get-it-on-the-train-before-the-war-ends bankers and hang-onto-office-by-your-bitten-fingernails politicians.
My plan? Pay off debts, hoard some emergency cash (and maybe gold), and if I have to invest, put it in something that's secure and inflation-proofed.
Arcelor, being three times larger than its nearest rival, Japan's Nippon Steel, and sharing 10 pc of the industry's global sales, wields huge power to determine what happens to prices and production. In the medium to longer term, Mr Mittal expects the industry to bounce back sharply as the pace of industrialisation in China and India picks up again.
In China, billionaire Shagang steel magnate Shen Wenrong has also planned for the coming downturn. In fact he's not even cutting his prices, since (I surmise) his game plan is that his over-leveraged competitors are going to go bust and customers will have to come to him anyway.
This is smart, counter-intuitive strategy for dealing with a recession. Those who try to survive by cutting margins will get skinny and become more vulnerable to delayed delivery by cash-strapped suppliers, bad-debt customers, and shark bigger-business customers that deliberately pay late to force your business under and then buy your goods from the official receiver at a 90% discount.
In a really post-industrial economy, we in the UK and USA will discover the disadvantages of being run by money-grows-on-trees lawyers, box-it-all-up-and-get-it-on-the-train-before-the-war-ends bankers and hang-onto-office-by-your-bitten-fingernails politicians.
My plan? Pay off debts, hoard some emergency cash (and maybe gold), and if I have to invest, put it in something that's secure and inflation-proofed.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
A brilliant idea - Kiva microfinance
Let's think about people to whom $25 would make - is making - a difference. Rory Sutherland's column in The Spectator this week is about Kiva, a project that lends small sums to individuals and groups around the world, mostly to set up or develop little businesses.
They repay from their increased production, you get to re-lend to more people. Really, it's a way that the poor but proud can help each other, using your finance to grease the wheels.
Having read Sutherland, I've just joined, and I really feel good about it. Why don't you?
They repay from their increased production, you get to re-lend to more people. Really, it's a way that the poor but proud can help each other, using your finance to grease the wheels.
Having read Sutherland, I've just joined, and I really feel good about it. Why don't you?
Coming your way
Marc Faber: There are two possibilities. Banks go under and the stakeholders are left with nothing, as is the case with Lehman Brothers, or governments pump money into the financial system so that the incompetent financial clowns in Bahnhofstrasse [Zurich's financial centre] and Wall Street can continue to eat in fancy restaurants.
I am clearly in favour of the first because the consequences of these state interventions are massive budget deficits. To finance these, governments have to acquire money. For that they have to borrow money, which makes state debt and interest payments soar. US economists have come to the conclusion from the trends that there will be a US state bankruptcy.
Swissinfo: Do you share that view?
M.F.: One hundred per cent.
(Source)
I am clearly in favour of the first because the consequences of these state interventions are massive budget deficits. To finance these, governments have to acquire money. For that they have to borrow money, which makes state debt and interest payments soar. US economists have come to the conclusion from the trends that there will be a US state bankruptcy.
Swissinfo: Do you share that view?
M.F.: One hundred per cent.
(Source)
Friday, November 07, 2008
A glimpse from the rich man's coach
Here is a letter to the NYT from the insouciant Don Boudreaux. Unfortunately the comments to this piece on Cafe Hayek are closed - I wonder why? So I'll have to note here that it stirred a memory...
‘Now, you know,’ said Mr. Bounderby, taking some sherry, ‘we have never had any difficulty with you, and you have never been one of the unreasonable ones. You don’t expect to be set up in a coach and six, and to be fed on turtle soup and venison, with a gold spoon, as a good many of ’em do!’
Hard Times, by Charles Dickens
And another, from Shaw's Pygmalion:
I ask you, what am I? I'm one of the undeserving poor: that's what I am. Think of what that means to a man. It means that he's up agen middle class morality all the time. If there's anything going, and I put in for a bit of it, it's always the same story: 'You're undeserving; so you can't have it.' But my needs is as great as the most deserving widow's that ever got money out of six different charities in one week for the death of the same husband. I don't need less than a deserving man: I need more. I don't eat less hearty than him; and I drink a lot more. I want a bit of amusement, cause I'm a thinking man. I want cheerfulness and a song and a band when I feel low. Well, they charge me just the same for everything as they charge the deserving. What is middle class morality? Just an excuse for never giving me anything.
The American Declaration of Independence states "all men are created equal", and of course it was obvious even then that they are not so, whether by birth, upbringing, education or natural talent. Not, in those senses; but the bold defiance of Nature and Society represented by the libertarian revolution of America, and of revolutionary France, is that they have, they should be given, equal dignity, as of right.
And unless a tenured economics professor who boasts of not voting, in a colony that rebelled on the principle of "no taxation without representation", wishes to see the poor squashed while the rich loot the country without fear of retribution, he will need to develop his thesis somewhat.
I do not see how a country can be composed exclusively of the well-off, nor can I imagine how, given all their disadvantages, the poor may rise up as one and join the middle class. There will always be inequality, so our debate should be about setting a minimum standard for the poorest, while motivating them to better themselves if they possibly can. That's certainly a circle that will take some squaring, and a benefit-trap-riddled Britain can scarcely present itself as a model answer.
But I don't see how air conditioning and two cars (what? all poor families?) quite make up for the miseries of ill-health, disability and a shorter lifespan. And it's not entirely down to consciously-made bad choices, in quite the way Mr Boudreaux implies. The ideal-world notion of rational choice has to take into acount real-world limited intelligence, inadequate information, poorer education and in many cases disharmonious emotional constitutions produced by poor parenting, lousy neighbours, failing schools and fear of crime and destitution.
Dives should not look down upon Lazarus.
‘Now, you know,’ said Mr. Bounderby, taking some sherry, ‘we have never had any difficulty with you, and you have never been one of the unreasonable ones. You don’t expect to be set up in a coach and six, and to be fed on turtle soup and venison, with a gold spoon, as a good many of ’em do!’
Hard Times, by Charles Dickens
And another, from Shaw's Pygmalion:
I ask you, what am I? I'm one of the undeserving poor: that's what I am. Think of what that means to a man. It means that he's up agen middle class morality all the time. If there's anything going, and I put in for a bit of it, it's always the same story: 'You're undeserving; so you can't have it.' But my needs is as great as the most deserving widow's that ever got money out of six different charities in one week for the death of the same husband. I don't need less than a deserving man: I need more. I don't eat less hearty than him; and I drink a lot more. I want a bit of amusement, cause I'm a thinking man. I want cheerfulness and a song and a band when I feel low. Well, they charge me just the same for everything as they charge the deserving. What is middle class morality? Just an excuse for never giving me anything.
The American Declaration of Independence states "all men are created equal", and of course it was obvious even then that they are not so, whether by birth, upbringing, education or natural talent. Not, in those senses; but the bold defiance of Nature and Society represented by the libertarian revolution of America, and of revolutionary France, is that they have, they should be given, equal dignity, as of right.
And unless a tenured economics professor who boasts of not voting, in a colony that rebelled on the principle of "no taxation without representation", wishes to see the poor squashed while the rich loot the country without fear of retribution, he will need to develop his thesis somewhat.
I do not see how a country can be composed exclusively of the well-off, nor can I imagine how, given all their disadvantages, the poor may rise up as one and join the middle class. There will always be inequality, so our debate should be about setting a minimum standard for the poorest, while motivating them to better themselves if they possibly can. That's certainly a circle that will take some squaring, and a benefit-trap-riddled Britain can scarcely present itself as a model answer.
But I don't see how air conditioning and two cars (what? all poor families?) quite make up for the miseries of ill-health, disability and a shorter lifespan. And it's not entirely down to consciously-made bad choices, in quite the way Mr Boudreaux implies. The ideal-world notion of rational choice has to take into acount real-world limited intelligence, inadequate information, poorer education and in many cases disharmonious emotional constitutions produced by poor parenting, lousy neighbours, failing schools and fear of crime and destitution.
Dives should not look down upon Lazarus.
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