Broad Oak: your emotional support animal

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Signs and portents

Over at Financial Sense University, Jim Willie paints a frightening picture. He claims that the US Federal Reserve has been secretly giving dollars to foreigners to buy US Treasury Certificates, so (temporarily) supporting US bonds and the dollar. Meanwhile, big banks are waiting for smaller banks to suffers losses on commercial loans, at which point they will gobble up their smaller competitors. But the big banks are insolvent, so rather than a healing juncture, it'll be a vampire puncture.

Studying the US Dollar Index, Willie uses a measure that Karl Denninger has previously cited, namely, a comparison of two trends: the 20-week moving average with the 50-week moving average. When the first crosses the second, the second will eventually follow - in this case, downwards.

In my previous post, I referred to signs and portents. This is because when big things are happening, the fog of lies thickens, so we have to look for betraying details and use our intuitions. Art is often the canary in the mine - you hear the coming conflict in the discords of Stravinsky's 1910 "the Rite of Spring". The disturbed children that I teach have recently been exploring zombies. Some also play computer games at home, that involve stabbing opponents in the eyes or genitals. One child's graffiti tag is JABZ.

Doodling, they draw pistols, rifles, knives, swords; but still read Postman Pat and Spongebob Squarepants. Gossiping, they talk of their mother's vibrator, their father's merkin, but (at age 11) don't quite understand and are looking forward to learning the facts about sex next week, which our curriculum now requires me to deliver. They come in shadow-eyed from gaming, but also from (in one case) accompanying their father late at night as he hunts down and savagely beats people who tied up and soaked with petrol an uncle suspected of stealing a motorbike. Where are the police? you may ask; the father is an ex-policeman. The Monarch's writ does not run where our underclass have to live; to have normal social inhibitions would be dangerous in such an environment.

Some may accuse me of moral panic; but I didn't grow up with the currently prevailing sense of moral ambiguity, despair and social collapse. Are we breeding a nation of future child guerrilla-band soldiers? And how tragic, how culpable, that the entertainment industry is playing its part in this; and that the Government hopes to shore up its vote by perpetuating the financial dependence of its claimants.

But it won't happen to us, will it? "Wat geht dat mik an?" as the mediaeval Germans would say: "What's it got to do with me?" Years ago, my Prussian grandmother described Der Flucht, the flight from the Red Army in 1945. They would come to a farm and be very grudgingly permitted to sleep in the haybarn; two days later, the owners would be on the road themselves.

We are in this together; but I cannot see how the present political arrangement can tackle the challenges. There are too many ways for our leadership to be distracted, to be suborned and to escape consequences personally.

6 comments:

James Higham said...

Sackers, this is a top post.

In my previous post, I referred to signs and portents. This is because when big things are happening, the fog of lies thickens, so we have to look for betraying details and use our intuitions.

Yes indeed. I'll have to quote from this post tomorrow.

Paddington said...

Enough depression. I'm having a friend over for dinner and beers tonight. I'll deal with tomorrow later. After all, I've already done most of what I can.

Paddington said...

"The Earth is degenerating today. Bribery and corruption abound. Children no longer obey their parents, every man wants to write a book (?), and it is evident that the end of the world is fast approaching."

[Assyrian tablet c. 2800 BC]

dearieme said...

When the German and Irish barbarians invaded this island, civilisation was restored in just - oh, about 1200 years. Patience!

OldSouth said...

Some may accuse me of moral panic; but I didn't grow up with the currently prevailing sense of moral ambiguity, despair and social collapse. Are we breeding a nation of future child guerrilla-band soldiers? And how tragic, how culpable, that the entertainment industry is playing its part in this; and that the Government hopes to shore up its vote by perpetuating the financial dependence of its claimants.

This is a great post, and no, you are not totally out-of-bounds in your concerns. You can't dismiss what you see in front of you.

May I, however, send some hope in your direction?

It's not falling apart everywhere, though it may seem so. I witness parents doing a very credible job with their kids, and am moved by the decency and generosity of many people I meet.

I also firmly believe in Providence. One favorite story that sticks with me is that of Elijah, hiding in the cave, declaring 'I alone am left!'

To which he hears the reply--'I have kept myself a remanant, which has not bowed the knee to Baal.'

At that point, the tide turns in the favor of the right and good.

You are not alone, either.

Anonymous said...

Excellent post, and on consideration I find I agree.

Fifty years ago you could have been quite sure that British society would withstand such shocks, as it has done many times in the past. We were a strange mixture of the warlike and the very very resilient.

Now, however, things are different. Between the dependent-but-savage underclass and the rampant unlimited immigration from different cultures and different values, there is no resilience left.

When the money really runs out, practically anything may happen.