Friday, October 10, 2008

Guessing the low points

I looked at trends in the Dow earlier this year and guessed that the Dow's low might be 7,000. Now, Mish reports that Nouriel Roubini is saying the same.

The FTSE is currently hovering around 4,000, which is lower than the line I drew in June. But then, the line passed through, not under, the lowest negative spike in 2003. I seem to recall Wolfie predicting 4,000 in one of his comments here recently; well done, old chap.

7 comments:

dearieme said...

I'd thought that under 4000 could be assumed: it's the possibility of under 3000 that worries me. The population is getting worried; a nice young woman asked me at lunch what "default" meant.

Sackerson said...

You could have explained it by telling the restaurant owner that she was paying, and then running out.

Wolfie said...

Thank you for the attribution but I fear I may have to revise my estimates this week as new forces have come into play, dark and frightening forces which could swallow our fragile economy whole.

Sackerson said...

Please explain, Wolfie. Is this to do with the non-zero sum position of many derivatives holders? Are we in Michael Panzner territory?

James Higham said...

This is the game, Sackers - correctly guessing the low point.

Wolfie said...

Indeed Sackers, well and truely facing that possibility.

Sackerson said...

James: it is not a game that ordinary people should be forced to play.

Wolfie, are you able to pierce the fog surrounding this issue?