'Smoking gun': not a phrase I have heard lately, probably because it could be applied to so many things today; we seem to be in a sea of mendacity corruption and unbelievably poor governance.
*** FUTURE POSTS WILL ALSO APPEAR AT 'NOW AND NEXT' : https://rolfnorfolk.substack.com
Saturday, October 16, 2021
WEEKENDER: Covid Mismanagement - The Smoking Gun, by Wiggia
'Smoking gun': not a phrase I have heard lately, probably because it could be applied to so many things today; we seem to be in a sea of mendacity corruption and unbelievably poor governance.
Friday, October 15, 2021
FRIDAY MUSIC: Fado with Mariza, by JD
Thursday, October 14, 2021
THURSDAY BACKTRACK: Music and news from 60 years ago - week ending 14 October 1961
At #2 this week is John Leyton's 'Wild Wind':
1 |
Walkin' Back To Happiness |
Helen Shapiro |
Columbia |
2 |
Wild Wind |
John Leyton |
Top Rank |
3 |
Michael Row The Boat |
The Highwaymen |
HMV |
4 |
Jealousy |
Billy Fury |
Decca |
5 |
You'll Answer To Me |
Cleo Laine |
Fontana |
6 |
Wild In The Country / I Feel So Bad |
Elvis Presley |
RCA |
7 |
Kon*Tiki |
The Shadows |
Columbia |
8 |
Sucu Sucu |
Laurie Johnson |
Pye |
9 |
Johnny Remember Me |
John Leyton |
Top Rank |
10 |
Together |
Connie Francis |
MGM |
11 |
Get Lost |
Eden Kane |
Decca |
12 |
You Don't Know |
Helen Shapiro |
Columbia |
13 |
Granada |
Frank Sinatra |
Reprise |
14 |
Hats Off To Larry |
Del Shannon |
London |
15 |
Who Put The Bomp |
The Viscounts |
Nixa |
16 |
Michael Row The Boat / Lumbered |
Lonnie Donegan |
Pye |
17 |
Sucu Sucu |
Nina and Frederik |
Columbia |
18 |
My Boomerang Won't Come Back |
Charlie Drake |
Parlophone |
19 |
Bless You |
Tony Orlando |
Fontana |
20 |
Hard Hearted Hannah / Chilli Bom*Bom |
The Temperance Seven |
Parlophone |
Tuesday, October 12, 2021
UPDATED: Death rates rising in the UK
I'm not the only one to notice:
'NHS bosses are apparently puzzled by the fact that there are, in the UK, thousands of excess deaths at the moment. These excess deaths are not caused by covid-19. I cannot imagine why the NHS is puzzled. I forecast nearly 18 months ago that there would be a flurry of extra deaths at this time..'
https://vernoncoleman.org/articles/scary-stuff-you-should-know
________________________________________________________________________________
Something is going on. The provisional death statistics for England and Wales have just been released, and over the last three month period (weeks 27-39) this is what we see re Covid fatalities:
The 2020 figures are those where Covid was 'mentioned on the death certificate'; this year's are where Covid was named as the 'underlying' i.e. main cause of death. ('Mentions' are slightly higher. Like-for-like for those 13 weeks: 2021=7,506 mentions, 2020 =2,664 mentions.)
But by itself, Covid does not go anywhere near accounting for this year's increase in mortality from all causes over that period. In 2020, total deaths from weeks 27 to 39 were 118,197 which is almost exactly the same as the previous five-year average (118,328); in 2021 the corresponding figure is 132,203 - about 14,000 more than last year.
So for the last three months, we have seen 10,169 deaths per week as compared with 2020's weekly toll of 9,092; up by more than a thousand a week.
In weeks 27-39 of 2020, deaths where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate totalled 2,664; in 2021, 7,506 'mentions' or 6,514 'underlying causes.' That is, Covid-related fatalities account for less than four or five thousand of the 14,000 difference between this year and last, over that period.
What has been happening? How do we account for this recent non-Covid surge?
Inflation and levelling-up
An example of differential: the entry-level salary of a
classroom teacher is £25,714 per annum https://www.nasuwt.org.uk/advice/pay-pensions/pay-scales/england-pay-scales.html#Classroom%20Teachers
. Ignoring the five ‘Baker days’ of in-service training, teachers work 190 days
a year and according to the NEU, an average of 49.5 hours a week https://neu.org.uk/state-education-staff-workload-wellbeing-and-retention
. Crunch those numbers and you get a starter’s hourly rate of £13.67, after six
years of self-investment by way of extra school, college and teacher training. Pay
in that NEU survey was actually the least important reason for teachers wanting
to leave; nevertheless, the economic disruption of wage competition is on the
way.
It will sort itself out in the long run, provided two things
happen:
1. At the same time as demanding minimum hourly pay rates,
the Labour Party (and the current Conservative administration) must agree to
controls on economic migration if they do not wish to see continued structural
long-term unemployment and under-employment.
2. Similarly, the virtuous economic circle of individuals
re-spending their earnings within the country is threatened by the leak of
money abroad on consumer imports. We must do whatever we can to adjust trade
tariffs and agreements; in any case, the world’s supply network is under
increasing strain and our resilience is a growing concern.
It is good to read MP John Redwood’s strictures on central
banks https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/10/10/inflation-3/
and our national failure to plan for greater self-sufficiency. Really we have
had the chance to make contingency plans for Brexit since January 2013 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33141819
, though the financial consequences of EU membership and wider globalisation
were obvious for decades before that.
Mr Redwood notes that consumer price inflation is coming
(and of course we have the energy crisis upon us, too.) When NS&I changed
our index-linked certificates from RPI to CPI I suspected then that they had
bet the wrong way, haha; but what to do with our non-protected cash? As a
humble ex-IFA I see the stock market as a skyscraper straddling the San Andreas
Fault; also, bond yields are miserable and likely to remain so, since raising
interest rates would compromise the government’s finances, let alone ours.
The fight to retain the Northern Blue Wall has prompted the
present administration to compete with the hapless faux-socialists and make
noises about ‘levelling up’; perhaps that will be achieved in burning up our
savings. I look forward to the funny speech Boris will make then; I’ll be
needing a good laugh.
Monday, October 11, 2021
Keep on truckin'... or not, by JD
My brother has a class one HGV licence and has had it for nearly forty years. He has shown me photos of a forty ton artic plus trailer fully loaded with straw which he has driven into farmyards and out again. I don't know how he does it. I've been in the cab of one of these vehicles and they are huge, I would be rather tentative if I had to drive one on the public roads and very, very nervous if I were to tackle a farm road!
Last week he showed me his letter from Boris asking him to return to HGV driving again. Needless to say he is going to ignore the call. He doesn't need the money that badly any more and he has better things to do.
I found this copy on one of the Government's web sites. Just as a matter of interest how many people know that 'assets publishing' is where the Government hides information they don't want the public to read? It is where they publish all the gory details advocated by the behavioural psychologists of SAGE and the 'nudge' units; how to manipulate people etc. I doubt if any psychologist made a contribution to this letter, it is 100% bureaucratic in the style of Sir Humphrey and doesn't offer any sort of encouragement or incentive to disappeared HGV drivers.
https://assets.publishing.
And I laughed when I saw the signature - Baroness Vere of Norbiton. Who is she? Oh, I see; she is Minister for Roads, buses and places! That title sounds like something out of The Two Ronnies with Ronnie Barker sitting behind a desk explaining idiotic government policies.
Read the comments here beneath the MailOnLine story to know why HGV drivers are not returning. Most of those comments and complaints have been verified by my brother at one time or another. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/
And look at the photo of the Waitrose delivery truck. Far too big for suburban deliveries. I see vehicles like that trying to negotiate the confined spaces around my local supermarket. And not just the confined spaces, there are parked cars blocking access as well as car drivers who get in the way at inappropriate moments.
Here is an example of what drivers must face while making deliveries on roads which were designed for the horse and cart and having to use a large articulated lorry because it is more 'efficient' for the haulage company:
My brother has been very selective in his driving and, because he has been doing it for a long time, he has built up a 'network' of reliable 'contacts' who can provide suitable work for him. preferring to work for smaller local companies mostly connected to farming or to heavy haulage. He would rather drive 'dirty' loads like coal or ash or rubble from demolition. He spent a few years transporting cattle from the marts and delivering them overnight to farmers all over Northumberland and Cumbria. The only overnight stay job he has done was taking a racehorse to Ireland a couple of years ago. I'm sure other drivers would have similar arrangements after many years in the industry
A few days ago I saw an article in the local paper saying there was a shortage of bus drivers and there had been regular cancellations of some services. It seems that the Government has also written to current bus drivers asking them to switch to HGV driving. Yet more 'joined up' thinking from our politicians and civil servants! I wondered if this was a local problem but I can now see it is a national problem with this story:
I cannot see any bus drivers being tempted by the Government's offer; a PSV licence will not allow you to drive a heavy goods vehicle. Bus drivers would have to do the training and then apply to the DVLA for a new licence. As far as I know the delays within the DVLA is one of the lorry drivers' biggest complaints so ex bus drivers will have to join the queue!
But, not to worry. Boris is on holiday. Strange how he always runs away at the right time, remember all those missed Cobra meetings at the start of the covid last year?
Muddle on Boris! One day your luck will run out!
Sunday, October 10, 2021
In a nutshell: postwar history, by Paddington
My summary of US and UK culture from World War II onwards.