Sark: I have nothing to say

Looking to expand the World Voices bloglists, I happened upon Sark. Surely there could only be one blogger there, bearing in mind that the island has a population of only around 600? I've taught in plenty of schools bigger than that. Not so. It would appear that even in this tiny community, there is tension and dissent.

Some outsiders are attracted to Sark by its strange old ways - the ban on motorised transport, and the feudal regime that existed until only a very few years ago. This has historical roots, for the Channel Islands, and Sark in particular, have a special relationship with the British Crown: 

"The Channel Islands consist of two Bailiwicks, Jersey and Guernsey. The Channel Islands are Crown dependencies but they are not part of the United Kingdom nor are they colonies. When King Philippe Auguste retook possession of continental Normandy in 1204, King John retained the Channel Islands. His right as Duke of Normandy lapsed, and a separate title grew up by force of occupation, which attached to him as King of England. This was confirmed by the Treaty of Bretigny in 1360. [...]
 

"In 1565, acting by letters patent, Queen Elizabeth I appointed Helier de Carteret as the Seigneur of Sark (or Lord of Sark), and granted it to him as a royal fief as a reward for his having secured the island against the French. Inheritance of the fief and any land sublet by the Seigneur is by male primogeniture in the manner of the Crown. The Seigneur has always been free to sell the fief subject to royal consent. The present Seigneur is John Michael Beaumont. His family acquired the fief with Crown permission in 1852. He inherited it on the death of his grandmother Dame Sibyl Hathaway in 1974."
 

Source: background preamble to judgment given by the UK Supreme Court, 1 December 2009.

Sark's quaint charms have caused the island to be featured in a recent human-interest BBC documentary series "Island Parish" (reviewed in a typically slantendicular Guardian way here), as well as being the setting for Mervyn Peake's magical "Mr Pye", televised hauntingly by Channel 4 in 1986 - you can see it again here.

But as the legal case quoted above makes clear, not everyone is a fan of the old ways, and thanks to the European Commission on Human Rights as interpreted by the British courts, democracy has come to this Mouse-That-Roared throwback.

Not quite enough of it, for some, as the Valentine's Day 2013 edition of the Sark Newsletter makes clear:

"For four whole years, Sark’s "democratic" government has been in place and for all that time they have, with no dissent or opposition whatsoever in parliament, been able to do whatever they wanted..."

In the interests of balance, I would add this newsletter to the WV bloglist, but it appears not to have an RSS feed at the moment, so I have added it to the collectives on the right sidebar, where it can sit glaring at the (apparently) Guernsey-based blog of "Ebenezer le Page".

For it is (I hope) safe to say that the editor-publisher of The Sark Newsletter, a property developer called Kevin Delaney, is not universally loved, especially after an article published in January last year that criticised the emergency evacuation by lifeboat to Guernsey of the Seigneur's wife following a stroke. The Newsletter suggested that a helicopter could have been used instead; apparently that is banned under Sark law, according to this piece on Wikipedia, which also says that the billionaire Barclay brothers drive cars and use a helicopter on the Sark-governed sister island Brecqhou, where they have built their castle. The resulting row was heard as far away as New York.

This petition to the Secretary of State for Justice, Lord McNally, gives reasons why the Barclay brothers and what it describes as their "lieutenant" Delaney are resented by some on Sark. It also points out (in effect) that (as perhaps we have found for ourselves on the mainland), democracy in the form of the vote is not in itself quite enough to ensure justice, since economic power (not equally available to all) has the potential to be used to influence decisions and governance, as this Wiki article implies, saying:

"On 11 December 2008, the Barclay brothers were in the news for pulling out their investments (which include hotels) from the island of Sark, causing 170 staff to be made redundant after local voters did not support candidates championed by the Barclay brothers. The brothers had previously warned that if the voters chose to bring back the 'establishment' Sark leaders that are still aligned with the feudal lord then they would pull out of Sark. The Barclays have since reopened all their businesses on Sark and some staff were re-employed."

In fairness, the piece referenced above details the tremendous achievements of the twins, rising from bankruptcy in 1960 to enormous financial success and philanthropy in their later years. But it must be very difficult for Sarkee minnows to share a pond with such large fish.

 A previously-deferred BBC Panorama programme, "The Tax Haven Twins" was broadcast in mid-December 2012, fronted by confrontational journalist John Sweeney, who questioned the personal secretiveness and (perfectly legal) tax arrangements of the owners of the MP-expense-scam-busting Daily Telegraph, as well as the local tension and controversy that led to the island's doctor deciding to get "as far away as possible" from their sphere of influence.

But as a local lawyer reportedly (in that programme) said to islanders who consulted him, libel is a rich man's game, so personally I have nothing to say, except that all this has quite sucked the gilt off the gingerbread for me. I can only hope that there is reconciliation, one day.

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Soothing advice for mollusc-loving dyslexics

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Screaming kids: a treat for parents and teachers

From here (htp: my beloved sister-in law)

Nick Drew's Lenten message to DECC: "Lay off the boozle!"

See our expert's full story about the DECC's dodgy consumer energy price accounting here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Nick Drew's Lenten message to DECC: "Lay off the boozle!"

See our expert's full story about the DECC's dodgy consumer energy price accounting here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Bamboozling Britain on Energy Bills

I don't know if anyone's noticed but the government has recently overhauled its many websites into a fairly uniform GOV.UK set-up. They were pretty anarchic before, it must be said. Now, the gov-site I go to most often (DECC) is more difficult to navigate - but it does look a bit cleaner.

At the same time, I detect they have seriously decided to get their presentational act together. In the case of DECC (and, I've no doubt, lots of others too that I am unable to judge) this means systematically dissembling on the impacts of its ridiculous policies. Perhaps, following Galbraith's famous 'bezzle' coinage, we should call it the 'boozle'. And it's a biggie.

Yes, when it comes to lying about the future policy-driven costs of electricity, the government has long ago decided to Tell A Big One, summarised briefly as "OK, your bills will go up a little bit in the early years, but later they will fall (relative to what we say they would have been without our policies, fingers crossed)". It's worth unpicking exactly how they get to the numbers in this jolly chart, which greenies everywhere have really taken to, but which contains several questionable numbers and one massive, entirely fraudulent sleight of hand.

DECC's Boozle

As DECC have admitted in the past, this argument completely falls if gas prices fall. But let's look at some of the detailed components of their asserted 'saving' of £93.

Costs they acknowledge: as a first pass, we can probably assume most of the elements of the '+£280' are tolerably good estimates, but there are some important points to add: (1) 'EMR support' is planned to rise significantly after 2020, as the supposed new nukes start claiming whatever is to be their grotesque subsidy, and the capacity mechanism bites. So +41 is only the start. (2) Personally I don't envisage doing a 'Green Deal' at Schloss Drew, so I can ignore the +20 of loan repayment. (3) Just look at the transfer payment represented by the biggest single number, +70 for ECO support (a scheme "to subsidise energy efficiency measures for low income households") - this is you and me paying for social policy in a way the government hopes we won't notice. (4) Some estimates of the cost of smart metering etc are a lot higher than +3

Savings they claim: this is where the boozle really gets motoring. I don't know enough to challenge the -158 'Products Policy' and -89 'previous efficiency policies', but boy, those are big numbers. And - they are also in the bag already ! Sunk costs, so to speak. Nothing to do with avoidable policy-costs going forward. We could stop now, and these gains (whatever the numbers should be) would still be ours.

Additionally: (1) the Drew family won't qualify for -53 'ECO / Green Deal' or -16 'Warm Home Discount'. (2) -37 'smart meters' sounds pretty optimistic. (3) -20 'wholesale price impact of EMR' etc is flaky to the point of being an outright punt, it could easily be a net cost.

So: I could re-frame these same numbers for my own circumstances and the -93 diminishes to -49. I could - indeed, I do - diskard utterly the -20 as the flake-job it is. I could add 20 (or more) to EMR support for the years after 2020. I could inject another 30 of modest skepticism on smart meters, etc etc. And then I rightfully ignore the already-captured policy-gains of 158+89, because that's in the past. You can do the mournful maths for yourself.

So - going forward, The Current Policies Are Going To Cost Me Much, Much More! You too, I'm guessing. And the government itself acknowledges I'll have been paying more between now and 2020 anyway ...

Damn them and their wretched boozle !


This post first appeared on Capitalists@Work

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Sweeney Todd: an apology

Following investigation by the FSA, Fleet Street hairstylist Sweeney Todd has been forced to apologise for the use of horsemeat in his partner's popular pies. "We have been experiencing problems with our usual supplier," explained Mr Todd, 53, "so we have had to use protein filler from processors in Eastern Europe.

"Since our orphan boy tout fell ill, business in the barber's shop has been very slow, what with the credit crunch and the fact that thanks to our catering arm, we have no regular hairdressing customers.

"We have now returned to using 100% human flesh in our products. We can reassure consumers that the presence of animal tranquillisers in the pies has been traced to their recreational use by our late clientele. The Metropolitan Police have confirmed that they will not prosecute anyone for pie-related secondary intoxication."

Related news: the Health Secretary Mr Jeremy Hunt has announced that elderly people requiring long-term care will be given the choice of paying £75,000 towards nursing home fees, or a free visit to Mr Todd's salon.

Mr Hunt has asked us to point out that despite the name, there is no connection between his educational firm Hotcourses and the hot savoury dishes manufactured by Mr Todd and Mrs Lovett.

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Chinaaaarrgghh!!!

As the Year of the Snake approaches, read about Mark in China on World Voices.

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China: Scaring away the Nian

 

It didn't start off like in the brochure. A few minutes into the lesson, the teacher left Mark alone with nearly 40 Chinese children, some of them with special needs and all of them unable to understand what he was saying. And so:

 

 

From Mark's end of year report:

 

"English is being heavily driven in Beijing at the moment [2001-2]. As China is entering the World Trade Organisation, and also has the Olympics in 2008, it is seen as an advantage to the people of China to be able to communicate in English. Therefore the government has introduced measures to encourage this, from Chinese/English signs on streets, English language development programs on T.V. and radio, and Chinese/English publications. English is compulsory at [the] School from grade one through to senior two.

 

"However with China having a low percentage of non-Chinese people living or working in China and Chinese people generally not travelling outside of China, often communication with even English teachers in English can be difficult. The standard of written English is of a much higher calibre than spoken English, and English speakers' vocabulary is at a disproportionate level to the fluency with which they can use it."

 

The Chinese teachers at the school "followed a textbook and expanded on this where they felt it necessary," but allowed the four foreign Oral English teachers complete freedom to use their own methods.

 

Mark saw that there was a wide range of ability within the class, and no particular strategy for meeting the needs of the special needs children within it. Also, art was not a highly valued part of the curriculum. So his plan was English through Art: flags, maps, weather, animals, masks, cars - and doors and walls, as seen down the hutongs:

 

 

"When you stray off the main streets anywhere in the sprawling city of Beijing you can find yourself on the back streets where the humanity of Beijing reside. These alleyways, streets and back ways are affectionately referred to as 'Hu tong', they hustle and bustle with life. Whole families can be seen dodging in and out among bicycles incredibly overloaded with a three-seat sofa or cases of cabbages, open air hairdressers comprising a woman, a kitchen chair and her scissors. Life goes on past ornate and fascinating doorways, walls and architecture. What lies behind these doorways? What further dramas go on behind closed doors? Events probably not dissimilar to the family life of any household in Britain.. Often they open onto clutter, ever present bicycles, or occasionally a serene and peaceful scene, where a lonely cherry blossom tree stands central within a sunlight dappled and always dusty haven from the hustle on our side of the door."

 

Many of these ancient living areas were even then being cleared for modern urban projects, the former inhabitants moved far away from their jobs, local markets and lifelong neighbours.

 

The classroom learning continued with quizzes and games, and magic: Hallowe'en and Harry Potter, Hangman, the Hokey Cokey and Quidditch:

 

And celebrations, including Christmas and the New Year:

 

"January is a magical time in China. The Spring Festival begins with a bang for the Chinese New Year, with fireworks and lights filling the sky, almost overwhelming the eyes and ears. Chinese spring festival is a traditional holiday when people attempt to scare away mythical beasts, dragons and Nian. Nian is a mythical wild beast that preys on humans. So people light fireworks and hang lanterns to ward off Nian and keep it away from their homes.

 

"At this time of year homes and buildings are decorated with beautiful lanterns. The light builds to a zenith for the Lantern festival held on the fifteenth of January in two thousand and two (dependent on the Chinese lunar calendar). Lanterns come in many different colours and designs, producing a magnificant spectacle when evening falls and the lanterns bring the darkness to life."

 

The teaching style at the school was formal and could even be quite physically tough sometimes, but the staff felt they had something to learn from this more creative and playful approach. And so did the children:

 

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Slow down in Spain

See Brett Hetherington on World Voices.

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Spain: The Slow City movement

Time. It is the one thing that many of us feel like we don’t have enough of. Generally, we move through our lives at a rapid pace with mobile phones permanently on and our attention fixed on work and earning a living.

But in Catalonia, just as in other parts of the planet, there is an increasing number of people who are trying to reject a hectic ultra-modern lifestyle. They want to experience things in an unhurried way and the international Slow Movement is now helping that to happen.

Inspired by Italian Carlo Petrini’s Slow Food Foundation, which quickly spread world-wide, a number of other Slow movements have begun to emerge, especially across Europe. These now include Slow Science, Slow Design, Slow Money, Slow Travel, Slow Cinema (in this country with, Eduard Punset Casals, the Barcelona-born economist, lawyer and science writer/commentator) and even a Slow Parenting book by Helle Heckman, to add to Carl Honoré’s greatly influential title, “In Praise of Slow.”

On top of all this, we have Slow Towns (CittaSlow, in Italian) which in Catalonia is the two Empordà Baix villages of Begur and Pals on the Costa Brava. (The Spanish Slow Towns are Bigastro, Lekeittio, Mungia and Rubielos de Mora.)

But what exactly is a Slow Town?

According to the official website “There are currently 147 Cittaslow towns in 24 countries across the world making Cittaslow an internationally recognised standard [of] accreditation that acknowledges the dedication and commitment of community members who work hard to make their part of the world a healthier, greener, happier, slower place to inhabit.”

The mayors of each town are representatives on the international organization of CittaSlow and they are charged with the responsibility of co-ordinating the preservation of their regions’ “distinct identities in the face of global homogenisation.”

Only a town with less than 50,000 residents can apply for formal recognition and CittaSlow states that those who are accepted “are not state capitals or the seat of regional governments, but are strong communities that have made the choice to improve the quality of life for their inhabitants.”

To achieve the status of “Slow Town,” the town council must agree to accept the guidelines of Slow Food and work to “improve conviviality and conserve the local environment.” It first has to pay 600.00 euros to the Cittaslow central office.

Apart from the continuing promotion of Slow Food restaurants and suppliers, some programs already implemented in Slow Towns include recycling projects, after-school programs, and the provision of information for tourists that helps them have a genuine “local’s” experience. For general public use in festivals for example, town councils can also buy Cittaslow biodegradable pulp plates and cutlery made from cellulose, while in their offices using approved recycled paper notepads.

In Catalonia the Slow Food branch in Lleida is particularly active and the Facebook group of the “Slow Movement Catalunya” has in excess of 150 members. They say that they are a social movement that: “defends a slower life, without pressure and eating calmly with friends [in addition to] advocating working at a reasonable pace and not more hours than is necessary, gazing at the sea, playing with children, conscientious thinking and going out for a tranquil walk.”

Last year Carlo Petrini, the founder and President of Slow Food International spoke at the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. As the first ever outside speaker to be invited to address the floor in the this forum's ten-year history he gave Slow Food's perspective during a session on the right to food and food sovereignty.

How long might it be before a Catalan from one of the many Slow movements does the same?

Links:

http://www.slowfoodterresdelleida.com/

http://sloyu.com/blog/

http://slow-science.org/

http://www.cittaslow.org/

http://slowdownnow.org/

http://www.slowfoodfoundation.com/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/278348101475/?ref=ts&fref=ts

An edited version of the text above was first published in Catalonia Today magazine in February, 2013.

Reproduced by kind permission of the author, Brett Hetherington. All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment.

Here's looking at you

See World Voices...

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Australia: Eyeball

At the far reaches of the lounge bar in the Wayside Tavern the manager was cornered, by three angry men, total strangers all and oozing menace.

Their intention was to "get" him as retaliation for the eviction a few minutes earlier of the 4th member of their party.

With superior numbers, apparent superior physical condition, psychological preparation, and with youth on their side, the ambush was sprung. They announced their intention in coarse language, positioned themselves with one on each side (the wall being the 4th side) and made their move.

The manager was no slouch, as would be indicated by the fact after a 20 year career in the cabaret (nightclub) industry he still wore a fully tied (not a clip-on) necktie to work every shift.

Effortlessly, but with no holding back, he got stuck into the trio, twisting thumbs brutally, using catapault force to kick crotches, poking eyes, using elbows to drive the wind from lungs & so on.

The entire incident took only a few seconds, the tie remained immaculate and he wasn't breathing heavily.

Seeing the (brief) melee Mine Host & two other staff whizzed across the room, just as the manager completed establishing his supremacy.

However something seemed odd. While two were prone on the floor, conscious but unable to move, the third of the assailants was upright but hunched over in extreme agitation.

In a mind numbing flash, we all saw at once that an eye was popped out, hanging loose on his cheek like a marble on a string.

Time stood still.

Then, proving (as always) that if you have enough people around, you will have one of everything, a nearby customer strode over, got Mr Eyeball to stand up straight, positioned the eye high on the cheek, and with the heel of his hand calmly bumped it back into place (as if it were a trackball going back into a computer mouse).

The three assailants gingerly got to their feet and equally as gingerly stumbled away.

Nobody moved or said anything for a while. Then the manager, unruffled as always, noted that the training he had received many years before, on how to defend himself when unarmed, had taught him to poke into eye sockets, but there had been no mention of what to do if the eye popped out, and it was "quite handy" that the unknown patron happened to be on the spot to save the day.

Then we all returned to our work as if nothing had happened.

Reproduced by kind permission of the author. This article originally appeared here. All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment.

Cigarette packaging row: Art entry # 2

Continuing the series on redundant, nannyish consumer advice.

Drink: here.

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Freedom is created by limitation

Seen via "Tom Paine", a discussion piece by Professor Sandy Ikeda on what a free society would look like.

I comment:

Why should we want a free society?

Do people mean by that merely, a society in which my own freedom is maximised? In which case, this has always been achieved - by powerful individuals.

Maybe a better way to approach the problem is to establish limits on the wealth, power and ability to manage public information and communication of those who most want dominance. Perhaps the key to freedom is restriction.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Technology, faux defence and oppression

(Why are the architects of our future Hell so fond of crap rock music accompaniment?)

The Mail on Sunday revels in a whizzy new gadget:

... and then tries to reassure us:

While Black Hornet is a priceless tool in Afghanistan, it is unlikely it could be used on Britain’s streets because of civil liberty concerns.

"Unlikely"...

As Shakespeare's murderous Scottish usurper says:

 ... But in these cases
We still have judgement here, that we but teach
Bloody instructions, which being taught return
To plague the inventor.

The West has a history of using poor people in faraway places to refine the weapons they intend to use in their main agenda, even though it should ultimately come back on themselves:

Ethiopia, Guernica, Poland, London, Berlin.

Now we have cybersurveillance and Hellfire missiles, purportedly to protect us (the wholly good) from Puritans of a different religion (the wholly evil):

Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, ...your home.

Perhaps the first use will be against a terrorist cell in a remote Northern counties farmhouse; or kidnappers holed up in a tower block; or drug dealers on the Broadwater Farm Estate.

Even without our having to postulate malice, the logic of power is that it must be exercised, and (often incompetently) abused. Look at how our police have employed guns, CS gas, pepper spray, tasers.

But worst of all, civil governance has now entered the Information Age, as Orwell so presciently predicted. Already (I suspect) GCHQ is roboscanning everything you email, phone, Twitter or Facebook;  maybe also the titles of the books you borrow from the library, the programmes you stream onto your laptop or smart TV, your medical records, your movements as reported by your cellphone. If they don't, they could. If they can, they will, one day.

Fifty years after the first publication of "The Making of the English Working Class", E.P. Thompson should be here to write the sequel: The Breaking of the English Working Class. The poor were thrown off the land and into factories and slums, thus snapping not only their rural bondage but the bonds of obligation that also tied their social superiors. Noblesse oblige - but not richesse.

After generations of hard work and struggle there was a brief flowering of post-WWII prosperity and playful liberty. That is coming to an end here - though perhaps it is springing up in the New World of the East.

Now we have millions who are to be managed like useless and potentially destructive pets, and whenever they - or incoming competitors - look as though they may rise, a fresh wave of immigrants is employed to push them down another level.

And, like the micromanaging computers needed to keep the aerodynamically unstable F16 in flight, all this wonderful spying and coercive technology will someday be so useful in maintaining an otherwise totally insupportable social order.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Simon Beck's Snow Art

 

Doing the rounds via email, the intricate temporary-art snowfield images created by Simon Beck. His Facebook page and photo gallery here. 

 

Simon is an English cartographer (educated: Millfield and Oxford) who stays in France during the ski season, but is thinking about continuing his work in Norway.

 

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Nick Drew: abandoning nuclear could kill hundreds in Germany

See the fourth and final part of the Denmark/Germany energy series here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Nick Drew: abandoning nuclear could kill hundreds in Germany

See the fourth and final part of the Denmark/Germany energy series here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Inside Spain: behind the protests

On World Voices, the Crunch news from a Spain-domiciled Englishman. It made me realise how little I know, and how much I want to. Here's some of my supplementaries:

1. The media in Spain: who and what would you read if as a foreigner you wanted to get at the truth (and what are their hidden biases)?

2. The 15-M Movement: how did it mutate? What are the Movement's personalities, images and symbols?

3. How are modern social media (Twitter, Facebook, iPhone video etc) stimulating and organising people within our democracies?

4. How does (doesn't) the weird party-list-based voting system work in Spain?

5. What are the Spanish Government's work creation initiatives, and do they work?

6. What are the effects of extra tax as experienced by business owners, wage earners, shoppers - and what do they do to get round / deal with it?

7. What are Spanish public servants like, to deal with?

8. What have been the effects of terminating contract workers in the public sector to save money, as a first resort before considering the need for some of the permanently employed?

9. What does  the increasing unemployment look like on the street?

10. How does the modern protest resemble (how is it linked with) political agitation and enmities in the past (cf Orwell in Catalonia)?

11. Who else has noticed the return of the beggars - and how are they different from the cripples and  beggars of Spain decades ago?

12. What is Spain's experience of immigrants, especially from non-EU countries? Are there any attempts to control their numbers? Any tensions, as in the UK?

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Spain: The pain in Spain leads many to complain

Picture: Wikipedia

There was a time when Spain was as exotic and unexplored to Brits as Mali; but even now, there is much about the country that the tourist probably doesn't know, and I certainly don't. CIngrams has taken up my suggestion of a piece on the Spanish experience of the Great Financial Crisis, and for me it stimulates many further questions, which I'll put onto the Supplement page.

He begins by looking at the local protests:

The 15-M ‘movement’, which started at the time of the local elections in 2011 (held on the 22nd of May) mainly consisted of the usual young, hairy types who like to think that they can change the world by shouting slogans. They began peacefully, and in most places they continued peacefully, and the arguments they made were, on the whole, valid criticisms of the cumbersome and opaque electoral system, which multiplies parliaments and civil servants at many different levels, which gives members of those parliaments no incentive to represent the people who vote for them, as they owe their position entirely to the often unknown party controllers, to whom they must be loyal. Parties are state-funded and you cannot choose, and sometimes do not know, who you are casting your vote for. That is decided by the party.

Some of their complaints were about the banks, and showed a certain ignorance of economics typical in the young and those who have not yet worked for anything of their own, but I found them to be approachable, peaceful, not stupid, and I wondered if the government would actually start to take them seriously at some point.

 

Noises were made, but nothing much happened. As usual. What tends to happen is that these protests, even when based on good ideas and conspicuously peaceful, are taken over by the usual suspects, or fade away to nothing. Both of these things happened. The Occupy movement was quiet different from the 15-M, and the original purpose and form was lost, and just fizzled out.

 

Once the government started to recognise the gravity of the situation and actually do something rather than make political noises, it started by doing the wrong things, then attempting the impossible. They decreed, back in 2009, a programme of digging holes and filling them in again, in an attempt to pretend unemployment was lower than it was. Some useful work was done, but much of was a waste of money. They raised VAT, in an attempt to bring in some very short term income, while depressing commerce and investment in the medium term. Only a politician would think that a good idea. They also got rid of as many contracted personnel as possible, in order to reduce their wage bill. Something they were, at the same time, trying to stop other organizations from doing.

Civil servants in Spain have jobs and pensions for life. They cannot be laid off if they become unnecessary, and they are extremely difficult to sack even for laziness and incompetence. Whenever I have to deal with the civil service the difference I see between them and similar workers in the productive economy is enormous. (I could go on about this for hours. Forces self back to point.) So there are two ways the government can reduce its wage bill. One is to terminate the contracted staff, that is those who are not full‘funcionarios’, or who work for companies hired for specific projects. These are mainly building works working on roads and public buildings. The local and national governments here threw many thousands of them onto the dole when the money really, really ran out.

The second way is to reduce the salaries of the permanent workers. Incidentally, the idea of giving public employees unbreakable contracts for life comes from the 19thC and was intended to stop incoming governments from sacking most of the civil service and filling it with their friends. But a solution to a specific problem of corruption when the civil service consisted of only a few thousand people at most, has been allowed to continue until the present day, when there are over 4 million people whose wages are guaranteed with our money. There has never been the political will, or courage, to touch this system and there probably never will be. It is possible though that it will slowly be allowed to wither, at least by governments of the right, and most public employees will indeed be on contracts which can be ended when they have done what they were hired for. I am not too sanguine, however.

 

The early protests were led by the Civil Service unions, for this reason. They got little sympathy from the public because with 4 million unemployed (it’s nearer 5m now) and a similar number unable to reach the end of the month and with the possibility of losing everything at any moment, the public felt that people with a salary for life had little to complain about, even if that salary was a bit less than it used to be.

The unions see it as a good excuse to increase their standing with their members and attack the new, centre-right government. The new opposition suddenly claims to have all the answers it couldn’t find when it was in charge. Everybody complains, but everybody expects someone else to get them out of trouble. That is human nature, but it makes the problems worse, and more difficult to solve.

 

The trade unions regularly appear on the streets, waving flags and shouting slogans that express their grievances and suggest some solutions. They achieve nothing, of course, but it adds to the circus of life. They have not normally been violent except during the national strikes they called in May and November last year. These were poorly supported but in the larger cities the far left makes sure they are noticed and make the evening news, by giving their members permission to break things and attack people. This is for their own political ends, and is not going to solve any of the social problems that exist.

Beggars are also appearing on the streets. Not the usual drug addicts and gypsies, but ‘normal’ people were clearly once working families and who’ve tried every other way they can think of of making ends meet. This shows that, despite what I say in the next paragraph, there are problems much more serious than ‘the government isn’t giving me as much as I would like’, which you hear from most people.

 

People don’t realize or have forgotten what it is that makes an economy work. So many people now believe that government spending isthe economy, and that banks are evil, that it will be hard to re-create a country where hard work, investment, successful businesses employing people, are recognised as good things, to be encouraged and aspired to. The Chinese immigrants are now doing what the Indian and Pakistani immigrants did in Britain forty years ago. They are taking over small shops in large numbers, working long hours seven days a week, offering people things they want, when they want them, at good prices, bothering no one and making sure their children study hard so they can be doctors and lawyers and won’t have to spend 12 hours a day in a little shop. The number of people who routinely moan about this as though it were a bad thing shows that the recovery will take a long time. It doesn’t occur to them that they could do it themselves. It’s too hard for them, so they want someone else to do it. They then seem to assume that they themselves should somehow earn more for not doing it than the people who do actually do it.

 

Similarly, there are many immigrants from South America and Eastern Europe (The non-gypsies and non-gangsters) who are working very hard at what the local people don’t want to do. Most domestic cleaners, carers for children and the elderly, and many agricultural workers and bar staff, for example, are now immigrants, and have been for some years. Some unemployed people would jump at the chance to look after the elderly or work long hours in a bar, but most wouldn’t, and anyone with any kind of qualification fails even to understand the question.

It’s going to be long, slow and messy.

 

Extract reproduced with the kind permission of the author.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

What Lessons From Germany and Denmark? Conclusion

Denmark has demonstrated to the world that a substantial amount of wind generation capacity can be supported in an electricity grid operating feasibly  -  provided there is ready access to large quantities of hydro-electricity.  Germany has yet to demonstrate the feasibility of its own unique mix of wind power and solar generation with the damaging impact these have in combination on the operation of the electricity marklet, and of grid.  To date, it has narrowly avoided disaster - but only by dint of massive imports from sources that make a mockery of its own 'green', anti-nuclear policies; and by redoubling its efforts to build new coal and lignite-fuelled capacity.

In this concluding post we consider the costs of operating in the Danish and German ways.  Did anyone say it was going to be cheap ?

Denmark doesn't have to answer charges of outright infeasibility.  It should, however, be called to account (if only by its electricity consumers) for the cost of operating as it does.  Advocates of wind-power are inclined to state that every unit of wind-based energy generated is a (largely) carbon-free and (almost) marginal-cost-free contribution to the total amount required, even if they acknowledge that something needs to be on standby for when the wind doesn't blow satisfactorily (roughly 75% of the time).  Those claims are highly misleading.  When considering an entire grid-system as a whole, factors must be taken into account such as the material downgrading of efficiency suffered by gas and coal plants when placed on standby for intermittent deployment; and increased power losses arising from decentralised generation.  These factors erode the magnitude of the benefits claimed, sometimes very significantly (though rarely nullify them altogether, as some ill-judged armchair criticism of windpower asserts).

The other main source of whole-system cost derives from the import-export dynamics required to balance the Danish grid.  When imports are required, Denmark pays full price for hydro-sourced electricity from Norway.  By contrast, when Denmark has a wind-powered net surplus, it must effectively dump this into the Nordic market at close-to-zero prices.  Thus, the balance of trade by value goes heavily against the Danes.

Proponents of wind should be made to recalibrate the benefits they assert: but the full data required to make a comprehensive empirical assessment - even in as small a market as Denmark's - are not made available by the grid operators. One is inclined to assume there are political influences at work: but whatever, we know beyond a doubt that the facts tell negatively against the economics of wind.  The Danes have decided - hopefully in a democratic, if not transparent or quantified manner - to pay for the privilege of their chosen generation mix.  With enough money given to good engineers (and Norwegian hydro-generators), most things are possible.  Having met the engineers, however, I may tell you they tear their hair.

The German situation has all of the opaque Danish issues and much more besides.  We have noted before how solar and wind generation distort price-formation in the German wholesale market - solar in a predictable way, wind in a random manner.  Specifically, and much to the (ignorant) joy of green advocates, they trash the wholesale price (the 'day-ahead' spot market for electricity), being bid into the market at very low prices reflective of their marginal cost, the owners being paid anyway at guaranteed high rates.

But the resultant low (sometimes negative!) market price in no way benefits the average consumer.  What happens next is instructive.  As soon as the day-ahead market closes, perhaps at very low prices, the grid operators must then quickly come up with a supply plan for the day in question that is actually going to satisfy demand.  As a starting-point for this exercise, what the day-ahead market generally gives them to work with is a supply-demand match that is more-or-less balanced in terms of global amounts, but can be horribly out of balance in detailed terms; (a) geographically - there is frequently far more generation committed from windfarms in northern Germany than can be accommodated (the centre of gravity of demand is south of a median line); and (b) in terms of reliability - wind cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty 24 hours ahead.

So the grid operators must revise the despatch schedules, and call on imports and various costly sources of short-notice balancing, in order to keep the show on the road.  Of course, they mostly succeed (good engineers, enough money, etc) - but at a cost.  The key is this: they are entitled to charge the extra costs - and they will always be extra, there is never a cheaper way of doing it - across their customer base.  It doesn't appear in the record of wholesale market prices, but it shows up tangibly enough on the bill.  In consequence, Germans pay the second-highest electricity prices in the EC.

So much for direct cash costs.  As mentioned several times, the elephant in the room that threatens to roll over and crush the other occupants is that, unlike the Danish situation, this costly and dishonest state of German affairs is not stable.  Already, voltage in the grids is unreliable to a degree that many high(ish)-tech manufacturing processes cannot tolerate.  They are having to fend for themselves, either by generating their own electricity, or installing costly modulation equipment - quite a commentary on Europe's greatest economy.

To this second category of unwanted (and unforeseen?) costs we may in future need to add the catastrophic consequences should part of the German grid fail, as is widely anticipated.  The prime candidate for the epicentre of a rolling blackout is the region between Karlsruhe and Munich, from where it would cascade outwards to the whole of southern Germany, eastern France, Switzerland, Austria and the Czech Republic.  A week of this in winter will cost lives - many lives - and if the cash cost even matters against that backdrop it will be very large, too.  In case this is thought to be scare-mongering, the reader should be aware that the German Networks Regulator (Bundesnetzagentur) has spoken out on the subject from the moment the nuclear power-plant closures were announced; and the grid operators have contingency plans in place for outright disaster scenarios.

Thankfully, so far, the good engineers and the money have prevailed.

*  *  *  *  *  *  * 

Civilisation is energy-intensive (Lovelock).  What, then, are the lessons for (e.g.) the UK ?  Beware large-scale unintended consequences:  the renewables lobby will leave us to find out the hard way.

No-one has gone as far down this road as Germany, and we may be destined to learn vicariously from them - at their cost.  In terms of basic physical feasibility (never mind the cost) there is a practical maximum proportion of power that can ever be sustainably had from wind until electricity storage can be made cheap and very efficient: and this is not yet a prospect that may be relied upon.  The precise maximum proportion that wind can (physically) contribute will vary from market to market - hydro is critical - but we cannot all tap into Norway as Denmark has done.

If politicians insist on going for wind-power (and solar power) in as blind and grand a fashion as has Germany, (a) the direct cash costs will greatly exceed what we have been led to believe; (b) indirect costs will mount in parallel; and (c) eventually it becomes positively dangerous to life and limb.

I haven't even touched on whether there are any actual benefits accruing to anyone other than investors and manufacturers in the wind and solar industries.  They would need to be very big, and certain ... 

READ THE EARLIER PARTS OF THIS SERIES:
PART ONE
PART TWO
PART THREE


All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Nick Drew: EDF nuclear energy horse-trading nearing climax

... and goodbye to a colourful industry player: see Nick's latest here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Nick Drew: EDF nuclear energy horse-trading nearing climax

... and goodbye to a colourful industry player: see Nick's latest here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Nuclear Endgame - and a Rogue We Will Miss

Looks as though the nuclear strike-price endgame is in prospect.  EDF had softened us up with mention of £140/MWh for their Hinkley output; I had predicted £119.95: DECC seems to be trying to keep it under the hundred, "whatever that means", as the Inde's writer justly puts it.

Because whatever the notional outcome, bear in mind that (a) it will be index-linked, and the electrons will not be in action until 2021; and more significantly  (b) there are so many valuable concessions EDF can be given under the table by way of capped liabilities etc, the headline figure needs to be very heavily qualified - except we probably won't find out in our lifetimes.  (I remember selling diesel fuel to the old GLC / LTE: they would do anything to keep down the nameplate price - the only thing that was reported to the politicians at County Hall - including offering 12 months' interest-free pre-payment !  Easy when you know how.)

Anyhow, we may be sure it will be trumpeted from the rooftops as a great triumph for all concerned - double (prices) all round !

Marchant: Rogue CEO

With impeccable timing, the industry figure who has done most to highlight the outrageousness of all this has jacked his hand in, and we will miss him greatly.  Ian Marchant, the unlikely CEO of Scottish and Southern - only SSE and Centrica of the Big 6 remain as independent British companies - is calling it quits.  I'm guessing not many readers will have met Fat-boy Marchant, but suffice to say he is not a typical FTSE100 boss. His irreverent, flamboyant speeches, and more importantly his plain-speaking comments on the electricity market 'reforms' in general, and the nuclear nonsense in particular, have been a delight over the years.

Hopefully he will still be around in some capacity or other, and we hope for even more uninhibited outbursts from that ample quarter.  

This post first appeared on Capitalists@Work

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The weather's odd in Africa, too

Wet heads three months early - see World Voices.

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Central African Republic: Rain three months early

Garoua Boulai, Central African Republic - from Google Maps

It's not just in the UK and USA that we've been having unusual weather. Susan from the C.A.R. reported an unexpected tropical downpour on Thursday night - normally the dry season ends in April.

NPR News says experts don't know whether the apparently changing weather patterns are linked to the vagaries of El Niño * or claimed (and disputed) global warming, but reports that "since 1995, 70 percent of hurricane seasons have been busier than normal."

Or, since that makes 17 years so far, perhaps that's the new normal.
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* But a Bermudan insurer has decided it can predict weather events from sea temperatures.

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Cigarette packaging row - my art entry

Following yesterday's challenge, here's my first:

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Monaco - Grim Pix

See World Voices on the fightback against the media, here.

Monaco: Fighting Hollywood and Fleet Street

 

There's a whiff of invidious republicanism in the entertainment and news media, but the Empire fights back...

The Monaco Times reports that the Palace disapproves of the forthcoming film about the late Princess Grace. The Mail on Sunday today depicts it as a tale of imprisonment in the gilded cage of a sham marriage.

On a separate issue, the Murdoch-owned Sunday Times has lost a court case over its defamatory reporting of the wedding in 2011 of Princess Charlene and Prince Albert II, and has agreed to pay £300,000 in damages.

Covering both, and staunchly loyal to the House of Grimaldi, is "The Mad Monarchist" blogger, describing himself as "Unreconstructed reactionary ever plotting counterrevolution and the restoration of the Old Order."

Cigarette packaging: new art competition

Here are some suggestions, but you can extend the concept. Please post on your blog and notify us of your entry by comment below.