Sunday, October 17, 2021

Non-Covid deaths are on the rise in the UK - why?

'NHS bosses are apparently puzzled by the fact that there are, in the UK, thousands of excess deaths at the moment. These excess deaths are not caused by covid-19,' writes retired GP and pundit Dr Vernon Coleman on his website (14 October https://vernoncoleman.org/articles/scary-stuff-you-should-know .)

I noticed this independently and posted an ill-written piece about that a couple of days earlier (https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2021/10/death-rates-rising-in-uk.html .) 

Before I go on to that, let's review the pandemic so far. The first registered deaths from Covid-19 in England and Wales occurred in Week 11 last year; first 5, then 103 in Week 12 and 539 in Week 13. Then the disease took off and for the second quarter-year the average ran at a frightening 3,766 per week.

The first week of the third quarter (Week 27) saw the Covid toll drop back down to 532 and it tailed off from there, averaging out at 205 per week. From Week 40 (when officially the 'flu season' begins) to the end of the year it shot back up to an average 2,040 per week, and even higher in the first quarter of 2021 (4,296 per week.)

To avoid arguments about deaths 'from' Covid and deaths 'with' Covid, all the figures are for where the diease was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Last year the distinction was not made, but this year the statistics note separately where Covid was the 'underlying' (i.e. principal) cause of death. Having said that, of the 65,535 Covid-related deaths noted so far in 2021, in over 87% (57,152) of cases Covid was identified the underlying cause, so there is not a great deal to argue about.

In the second quarter of 2021, Covid-related fatalities dropped down to 168 a week; but in the third quarter just ended the average has risen again to 577 a week (as compared with 205 for the same period in 2020). Why should this be? Is it to do with the new variant of Covid, or the relaxation of restrictions on the public? Given that the median time from identifying the illness in hospitalised patients to subsequent death is only one or two weeks https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf , the infections leading to the third quarter Covid deaths come well after the 'flu season' (ends Week 20) and it must be worrying that we are seeing what looks like the start of a new spike at this time.

Perhaps even more concerning is what Dr Coleman noted above, that if we strip out all deaths where Covid was named at all, we still see an unusual excess.There is a rising trend in deaths from all causes from 2010 onwards, perhaps because our population is increasing in numbers and also growing older; but even ignoring the pandemic, the weekly non-Covid figures for Q3 of 2021 are clearly above that trend:

There is also a total of 992 cases in Q3 where Covid was mentioned but not named as the underlying cause, so if anything the anomaly is slightly higher than shown.

How do we explain this? Is it the indirect result of the disruption to GP and hospital services, and/or of the disruption to normal social and working life and people's behavioural responses to that? Should we speculate that the 'worst cold ever' reportedly raging in e.g. Devon https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/worst-cold-ever-rips-through-6041062 is a sign of immune systems weakened by restricted lifestyles and even possibly by mass vaccinations?

At what point is the cure worse than the disease?

Saturday, October 16, 2021

WEEKENDER: Covid Mismanagement - The Smoking Gun, by Wiggia

                                                        

'Smoking gun': not a phrase I have heard lately, probably because it could be applied to so many things today; we seem to be in a sea of mendacity corruption and unbelievably poor governance.

The report from the  parliamentary committee on the Covid handling is just another, well, report. It has no clout, it is just a self-serving pile of paper of politicians' views on other politicians' cock-ups or worse. Why bother? No report or inquiry on anything has had the desired effect. The Jay report on the mass rape of young girls is an obvious case: no report has spelled out its findings in a more forthright way yet apart from the next day's headlines it soon disappeared down that well-worn memory hole; not a single issue has been tackled in any meaningful way, hence the never-ending photofits of the next trial of these undesirables.

The report on the Covid crisis conveniently starts out with the presumption that lockdowns actually work so by saying we should have locked down earlier they cover themselves from any criticism that the lockdowns just might have been not necessary at all, after all Sweden managed well enough with light touch measures as did several states in the US. Lockdowns were never a done deal yet the magic words ‘saving the NHS’ make everything OK like sprinkling fairy dust on us all.

So MPs have decided the mistake made by Government wasn't 'lockdowns kill more than virus', it was not being draconian or fascistic enough - lockdowns should have been enforced before the virus got into the country or even earlier if they could have had their way, despite the WHO stating lockdowns were not the answer...


We can argue till the cows come about what or what not the right approach to dealing with the virus should have been, somehow I cannot see there ever being a consensus, but one thing is for sure: there is a stench lurking behind all this. With the exception of Sweden and a few states in the USA plus a couple of other countries there was a general consensus that lockdowns were the way to go. Was this just a follow my leader approach after China locked down hard and these countries worldwide decided this was the best approach, or was it lack of time and a desire to all be seen doing something, our excuse being to save the NHS? The same NHS that every winter gives out the same 'can’t cope' message.

One thing is for sure: once this route was taken our government or any other wasn’t going to go back and admit it was wrong. All dissent was erased and they carried on spaffing enormous sums of money on failed methods of control as well as shutting down the economy to a degree never seen before. The question has to be why? Despite what has been said this was not anywhere near the worst pandemic we have had - during the last one in 68/69 which I remember, the country carried on as normal - or anywhere near the consequences of the Spanish flu. Despite many including our own PM bigging up Covid as the biggest health threat this century, it simply isn’t. No real answers as to why this was different have been given, but the costs are horrendous and the Swedish model of control has not even been discussed, it has been totally bypassed; that can only be because to discuss it would have been to admit we and many others got it wrong and no politician is going to do that. Claiming to be 'following the science' when different views from the scientific and medical fraternity were refused airtime or any semblance of recognition, and shutting down any dissenting voices on all media platforms, was and is Orwellian.

I am as I have said before not one for conspiracy theories, yet so much that was derided eighteen months ago is beginning at least in part to be accepted as true. The cheap remedies written off as some sort of witchcraft now are appearing in some countries as a method to alleviate symptoms of the virus, again you will not see a change of direction from our experts or even a suggestion that just perhaps they were a little too quick to condemn these cheap remedies, 'cheap' being the word no pharmaceutical company wants to hear.

To me though the worst of all has been the appalling decision to decant hospital patients into care homes. Once more this has not been something we have been alone in doing, it would appear to  have been a coordinated approach; it cannot be a coincidence that so many countries took the same route at the same time. Did no one anywhere query that this might not be a good thing to do? Not one of the medical bodies involved in decision-making, not one eminent medical practitioner, no one in Health England or any equivalent bodies worldwide had a doubt about it all; I find that difficult to swallow. Or did they all take that same position from a global body such as the WHO?

This reveals the fact in the USA, starting around 4.40 in:
 

In Canada……


Across the globe the elderly were either neglected wilfully or there was an orchestrated agreement that they would be sacrificed, an appalling indictment of all those health services involved either way.


In Spain they just abandoned the elderly.


If we believe that this was wilful decisions were made at a high level and coordinated early into the pandemic, somewhere there are people in power who should be in jail by now, but already that part of the general mismanagement, an understatement if ever there was, is being sidelined: 'yesterday's news', 'lessons learnt', 'we had so little time' and on and on.

The reasoning and actions given in the report are amateurish to say the least. 'We had options' is actually said and 'hang on this could be dangerous', yet they all went ahead anyway. It's quite alarming that should have been the decision: if correct, the old were indeed sacrificed for a bed shortage that has been a feature of the NHS for years, the extra capacity supplied by the Nightingale Hospitals was never even used even in a way to provide a sanctuary for the same vulnerable patients. Why? The NHS said it never had the staff to utilise the Nightingale Hospitals, no it didn’t as Covid Centres but it did as overflow general hospitals, after all apart from front line staff the rest of the NHS was at home twiddling thumbs for months on end, even at that later date they could have been put to some use to give safe refuge to the elderly. I do not believe their was no other way other than to sacrifice those care home inhabitants as the result of total inaction.


The tragic consequences of that action will never be pinned on anyone or any group despite the size of the tragedy. The smoking gun will never be uncovered, too many reputations and positions rely on obfuscation in the matter. Already here Boris has said about the inquiry to be held, 'there is no rush to start'; no, of course there isn’t, there never is; it will be a complete waste of time and money as all the other inquiries are, but we are used to that by now, they have become theatre.

Friday, October 15, 2021

FRIDAY MUSIC: Fado with Mariza, by JD

 A visit to Portugal for this week's music courtesy of Mariza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariza who I discovered on last week's BBC2 show "Later With Jools Holland."

This introduction to her music is from the 2005 archive of the show - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09xq517









Thursday, October 14, 2021

THURSDAY BACKTRACK: Music and news from 60 years ago - week ending 14 October 1961

 At #2 this week is John Leyton's 'Wild Wind':



Some memorable events (via Wikipedia):

8 October; the Berlin Wall story continues: 'The first of at least 134 residents of East Berlin escaped to the West through a manhole that led to an underground sewer that ran underneath the Berlin Wall. West German students Dieter Thieme and Detlef Girmann organized the Unternehmen Reisebüro, also called the "Girmann Group". The operation lasted for four nights until East German police learned what was happening and closed off the route.'

10 October: 'The United Kingdom began negotiations with the six-member European Economic Community to seek membership in the Common Market, with an opening speech in Paris by Prime Minister* Edward Heath.' [*Incorrect; at that time he was Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal and Deputy Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. Wikipedia misinformation.]

    On the same day: 'All 260 residents of the South Atlantic island of Tristan da Cunha were evacuated by two small fishing boats, following a volcanic eruption on destroyed the crayfish canning factory that was the source of many islanders' livelihood. The group then spent the night on Nightingale Island, a 0.75 square mile patch of rock, 13 miles away, to await the arrival of the Dutch liner Tjisadane, which took them to South Africa.'

11 October, Vietnam War: 'The United States presence in South Vietnam was increased as President Kennedy authorized the deployment of an entire U.S. Air Force unit, the 4400th Combat Crew Training Squadron, to fly combat missions from the Bien Hoa Air Base.'

13 October: 'Prince Louis Rwagasore, the popular eldest son of King Mwambutasa and who had been selected by the new legislature to be the first Prime Minister of Burundi in advance of the African nation's independence from Belgium, was assassinated. Rwagasaore was dining with his cabinet at a restaurant on Lake Tanganyika, when he was killed by a single shot fired by Jean Kageorgis, a Greek national. "Perhaps no other event has weighed more heavily on the destinies of Burundi," noted one historian, adding that "many believe that if only fate had given him a chance, he might have spared his nation the traumas that would soon tear it apart."'

14 October: 'For twelve hours, all commercial flights in the United States and Canada were grounded in order to conduct the NORAD exercise Operation Sky Shield II. Starting, as scheduled, at 1:00 pm Washington DC time, civilian airline flights were halted and military planes conducted an exercise simulating a foreign bombing attack on North American targets. Commercial flights were allowed to take off again twelve hours later. It was the longest scheduled halt of air traffic in United States history, exceeded only by the emergency grounding following September 11, 2001.'


UK chart hits, week ending 14 October 1961 (tracks in italics have been played in earlier posts)

Htp: Clint's labour-of love compilation https://www.sixtiescity.net/charts/61chart.htm

1

Walkin' Back To Happiness

Helen Shapiro

Columbia

2

Wild Wind

John Leyton

Top Rank

3

Michael Row The Boat

The Highwaymen

HMV

4

Jealousy

Billy Fury

Decca

5

You'll Answer To Me

Cleo Laine

Fontana

6

Wild In The Country / I Feel So Bad

Elvis Presley

RCA

7

Kon*Tiki

The Shadows

Columbia

8

Sucu Sucu

Laurie Johnson

Pye

9

Johnny Remember Me

John Leyton

Top Rank

10

Together

Connie Francis

MGM

11

Get Lost

Eden Kane

Decca

12

You Don't Know

Helen Shapiro

Columbia

13

Granada

Frank Sinatra

Reprise

14

Hats Off To Larry

Del Shannon

London

15

Who Put The Bomp

The Viscounts

Nixa

16

Michael Row The Boat / Lumbered

Lonnie Donegan

Pye

17

Sucu Sucu

Nina and Frederik

Columbia

18

My Boomerang Won't Come Back

Charlie Drake

Parlophone

19

Bless You

Tony Orlando

Fontana

20

Hard Hearted Hannah / Chilli Bom*Bom

The Temperance Seven

Parlophone


Tuesday, October 12, 2021

UPDATED: Death rates rising in the UK

I'm not the only one to notice:

'NHS bosses are apparently puzzled by the fact that there are, in the UK, thousands of excess deaths at the moment. These excess deaths are not caused by covid-19. I cannot imagine why the NHS is puzzled. I forecast nearly 18 months ago that there would be a flurry of extra deaths at this time..'

________________________________________________________________________________

Something is going on. The provisional death statistics for England and Wales have just been released, and over the last three month period (weeks 27-39) this is what we see re Covid fatalities:


The 2020 figures are those where Covid was 'mentioned on the death certificate'; this year's are where Covid was named as the 'underlying' i.e. main cause of death. ('Mentions' are slightly higher. Like-for-like for those 13 weeks: 2021=7,506 mentions, 2020 =2,664 mentions.)

But by itself, Covid does not go anywhere near accounting for this year's increase in mortality from all causes over that period. In 2020, total deaths from weeks 27 to 39 were 118,197 which is almost exactly the same as the previous five-year average (118,328); in 2021 the corresponding figure is 132,203 - about 14,000 more than last year.

So for the last three months, we have seen 10,169 deaths per week as compared with 2020's weekly toll of 9,092; up by more than a thousand a week.

In weeks 27-39 of 2020, deaths where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate totalled 2,664; in 2021, 7,506 'mentions' or 6,514 'underlying causes.' That is, Covid-related fatalities account for less than four or five thousand of the 14,000 difference between this year and last, over that period.

What has been happening? How do we account for this recent non-Covid surge?

Inflation and levelling-up

Last month’s Labour Party Conference vote for a minimum wage of £15 an hour https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58713344 raises the inflationary Seventies issue of pay parity versus pay differential. Those who were around then will recall that many strikes were about groups of workers trying to get the same pay as peers in other companies, and that settlements would be followed by higher-skilled workers looking for raises to reflect the greater value of their own labour.

An example of differential: the entry-level salary of a classroom teacher is £25,714 per annum https://www.nasuwt.org.uk/advice/pay-pensions/pay-scales/england-pay-scales.html#Classroom%20Teachers . Ignoring the five ‘Baker days’ of in-service training, teachers work 190 days a year and according to the NEU, an average of 49.5 hours a week https://neu.org.uk/state-education-staff-workload-wellbeing-and-retention . Crunch those numbers and you get a starter’s hourly rate of £13.67, after six years of self-investment by way of extra school, college and teacher training. Pay in that NEU survey was actually the least important reason for teachers wanting to leave; nevertheless, the economic disruption of wage competition is on the way.

It will sort itself out in the long run, provided two things happen:

1. At the same time as demanding minimum hourly pay rates, the Labour Party (and the current Conservative administration) must agree to controls on economic migration if they do not wish to see continued structural long-term unemployment and under-employment.

2. Similarly, the virtuous economic circle of individuals re-spending their earnings within the country is threatened by the leak of money abroad on consumer imports. We must do whatever we can to adjust trade tariffs and agreements; in any case, the world’s supply network is under increasing strain and our resilience is a growing concern.

It is good to read MP John Redwood’s strictures on central banks https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/10/10/inflation-3/ and our national failure to plan for greater self-sufficiency. Really we have had the chance to make contingency plans for Brexit since January 2013 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33141819 , though the financial consequences of EU membership and wider globalisation were obvious for decades before that.

Mr Redwood notes that consumer price inflation is coming (and of course we have the energy crisis upon us, too.) When NS&I changed our index-linked certificates from RPI to CPI I suspected then that they had bet the wrong way, haha; but what to do with our non-protected cash? As a humble ex-IFA I see the stock market as a skyscraper straddling the San Andreas Fault; also, bond yields are miserable and likely to remain so, since raising interest rates would compromise the government’s finances, let alone ours.

The fight to retain the Northern Blue Wall has prompted the present administration to compete with the hapless faux-socialists and make noises about ‘levelling up’; perhaps that will be achieved in burning up our savings. I look forward to the funny speech Boris will make then; I’ll be needing a good laugh.

Monday, October 11, 2021

Keep on truckin'... or not, by JD

My brother has a class one HGV licence and has had it for nearly forty years. He has shown me photos of a forty ton artic plus trailer fully loaded with straw which he has driven into farmyards and out again. I don't know how he does it. I've been in the cab of one of these vehicles and they are huge, I would be rather tentative if I had to drive one on the public roads and very, very nervous if I were to tackle a farm road!

Last week he showed me his letter from Boris asking him to return to HGV driving again. Needless to say he is going to ignore the call. He doesn't need the money that badly any more and he has better things to do.

I found this copy on one of the Government's web sites. Just as a matter of interest how many people know that 'assets publishing' is where the Government hides information they don't want the public to read? It is where they publish all the gory details advocated by the behavioural psychologists of SAGE and the 'nudge' units; how to manipulate people etc. I doubt if any psychologist made a contribution to this letter, it is 100% bureaucratic in the style of Sir Humphrey and doesn't offer any sort of encouragement or incentive to disappeared HGV drivers.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1020169/letter-to-hgv-licence-holders.pdf

And I laughed when I saw the signature - Baroness Vere of Norbiton. Who is she? Oh, I see; she is Minister for Roads, buses and places! That title sounds like something out of The Two Ronnies with Ronnie Barker sitting behind a desk explaining idiotic government policies.

Read the comments here beneath the MailOnLine story to know why HGV drivers are not returning. Most of those comments and complaints have been verified by my brother at one time or another. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/experts/article-10046133/How-HGV-driver-Training-costs-salary-expectations.html

And look at the photo of the Waitrose delivery truck. Far too big for suburban deliveries. I see vehicles like that trying to negotiate the confined spaces around my local supermarket. And not just the confined spaces, there are parked cars blocking access as well as car drivers who get in the way at inappropriate moments.

Here is an example of what drivers must face while making deliveries on roads which were designed for the horse and cart and having to use a large articulated lorry because it is more 'efficient' for the haulage company:

My brother has been very selective in his driving and, because he has been doing it for a long time, he has built up a 'network' of reliable 'contacts' who can provide suitable work for him. preferring to work for smaller local companies mostly connected to farming or to heavy haulage. He would rather drive 'dirty' loads like coal or ash or rubble from demolition. He spent a few years transporting cattle from the marts and delivering them overnight to farmers all over Northumberland and Cumbria. The only overnight stay job he has done was taking a racehorse to Ireland a couple of years ago. I'm sure other drivers would have similar arrangements after many years in the industry

A few days ago I saw an article in the local paper saying there was a shortage of bus drivers and there had been regular cancellations of some services. It seems that the Government has also written to current bus drivers asking them to switch to HGV driving. Yet more 'joined up' thinking from our politicians and civil servants! I wondered if this was a local problem but I can now see it is a national problem with this story:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10077115/Wage-boosts-new-HGV-hauliers-attracts-public-transport-staff-meaning-cut-journeys.html

I cannot see any bus drivers being tempted by the Government's offer; a PSV licence will not allow you to drive a heavy goods vehicle. Bus drivers would have to do the training and then apply to the DVLA for a new licence. As far as I know the delays within the DVLA is one of the lorry drivers' biggest complaints so ex bus drivers will have to join the queue!

But, not to worry. Boris is on holiday. Strange how he always runs away at the right time, remember all those missed Cobra meetings at the start of the covid last year?

Muddle on Boris! One day your luck will run out!