Keyboard worrier
Showing posts with label wealth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wealth. Show all posts

Sunday, September 20, 2009

The coming tide

Thanks to Tyrone for his comment directing us to a YouTube presentation by W E Pollock, someone I've viewed with interest before. The comment was in response to an FTAphaville piece that asked why the Dow was rising so strongly.

Pollock, whose presentations are useful to the layman because he is at pains to be clear and calm, notes that the volume of trade is low, which may mislead us as to the value of the market as a whole. It is as if, in a slow-moving housing market, your neighbour suddenly manages to sell his house for much more than expected, because the purchaser has certain private reasons to get in.
He also notes that the gains on the Dow are counteracted by the fall in the dollar's value, and this is a theme I've touched on many times. You have to look at real gains; and even when you think you're beating the present rate of inflation in your country, currency exchange movements may be the early indicators of higher future inflation. This is why, comparing where we are now to the period 1966 - 1982, I think we may yet see the real-terms equivalent of Dow 4,000 and FTSE 2,000.

Pollock goes on to consider gold, over which he puzzles (but then, there's a lot of dirty work and hugger-mugger in that market); and oil - if foreign economies begin to recover and industrial production rises, increasing the demand for oil, then if the dollar continues to be weak the price of energy in the USA will become so high as to damage growth prospects there.

So, where are we with all this?

Even academic economists are beginning (very belatedly) to question the validity of their models. Across the world, the games are so weighted and rigged, the rules so suddenly variable, that we are talking about how things ought to work, rather than how they really do. This is why it's now a fertile ground for conspiracy theorists: there really is a lot of conspiracy. Trouble is, we don't know all of the plots, all of the players, and all of the details.

What I think we can do, is look at the ocean tide, and not at the individual waves.

Historically, Western countries became wealthy on technological advances and were able to sell goods not just to each other, but to undeveloped countries in exchange for cheap resources. Then the latter countries began to industrialise, and goods could be carried at low unit cost in vast bulk across oceans and continents. All that remained was to break down political barriers to trade, as Nixon began to do with his visit to China in 1972.

Trouble is, controlling the rate of change. It's one thing to turn on your oil-fired central heating, another if your fuel storage tank catches fire. We want to carry on as we are (or as we used to be), but poor people are in a hurry to attain our wealthy lifestyles, and are disinclined to progress more slowly. Vast international businesses and globe-trotting billionaires stand to do very well out of facilitating this trade; national politicians are under pressure from their voters to resist it - but on a personal level, will know how rich they themselves will be when they leave office, so long as they don't try too hard for the people who elected them.

So, while I don't quite subscribe to the Dick-Dastardly-and-Mutley view of politician's summits (G-name-a-figure, Bilderberg, et al.), I can see the natural attraction for them of a world (or at least supranational) government. It means being further away from the Great Unwashed, mixing with all the Right People, fine wines and yachts etc; it means going with the flow, helping wealth and power to gather into certain centres, and organising dole handouts to regions that lose out as a result. Only the fools will try to play King Canute.

Imagine the world economies as a series of canal locks descending a steep hill. We are in the top section, the poor countries lower down. Now if all the gates are opened at once, there will be a destructive gush of water; the narrowboats in the top lock sink into the mud; the ones at the bottom float on a higher tide; a brave soul on a surfboard (the international trader) rides a thrilling wave down the hill.

Free-traders will argue that trade brings mutual benefits; but I don't think the argument works when world income disparities are so great. A Dutchman bought Manhattan from the occupying tribe for $24, but I doubt they'd get it back for that price now, not even with 400 years' interest.

It's coming, it's coming fast, it's coming destructively; and the people we pay to stop it are telling us the lies we want to hear and planning their personal advancement*. Let us return the favour.

* “It is a totally wrong notion of people to assume that the government does anything for the people; the government is there to do something for itself, and not for the people”Marc Faber on GoldSeek, 12 September 2009

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Jealousy

The WSJ has published a list of the 200 best jobs (htp: Paddington). This should stimulate about 5 of the Seven Deadly Sins. Some surprises - e.g. a teaching assistant is 21 places above a teacher - though I do know a teacher who gave up to become an assistant. Find where you are in the pecking order - happy seething!

01. Mathematician
02. Actuary
03. Statistician
04. Biologist
05. Software Engineer
06. Computer Systems Analyst
07. Historian
08. Sociologist
09. Industrial Designer
10. Accountant
11. Economist
12. Philosopher
13. Physicist
14. Parole Officer
15. Meteorologist
16. Medical Laboratory Technician
17. Paralegal Assistant
18. Computer Programmer
19. Motion Picture Editor
20. Astronomer
21. Petroleum Engineer
22. Insurance Underwriter
23. Web Developer
24. Physiologist
25. Bank Officer
26. Architectural Drafter
27. Broadcast Technician
28. Stenographer/Court Reporter
29. Medical Secretary
30. Geologist
31. Publication Editor
32. Vocational Counselor
33. Aerospace Engineer
34. Jeweler
35. Dental Laboratory Technician
36. Electrical Technician
37. Musical Instrument Repairer
38. Audiologist
39. Bookkeeper
40. Anthropologist
41. Nuclear Engineer
42. Medical Records Technician
43. Librarian
44. Market Research Analyst
45. Dental Hygienist
46. Purchasing Agent
47. Set Designer
48. School Principal
49. Industrial Engineer
50. Medical Technologist
51. Archeologist
52. Tax Examiner/Collector
53. Dietitian
54. Typist/Word Processor
55. Chiropractor
56. Hotel Manager
57. Chemist
58. Personnel Recruiter
59. Psychologist
60. Technical Writer
61. Occupational Therapist
62. Electrical Engineer
63. Optometrist
64. Speech Pathologist
65. Financial Planner
66. Museum Curator
67. Zoologist
68. Pharmacist
69. Judge (Federal)
70. Clergy
71. Civil Engineer
72. Office Machine Repairer
73. Social Worker
74. Mechanical Engineer
75. Newscaster
76. Piano Tuner
77. Industrial Machine Repairer
78. Flight Attendant
79. Advertising Account Executive
80. Artist (Fine Art)
81. Telephone Installer/Repairer
82. Attorney
83. Bookbinder
84. Stockbroker
85. Communications Equipment Mechanic
86. Appliance Repairer
87. Fashion Designer
88. Corporate Executive (Senior)
89. Occupational Safety/Health Inspector
90. Photographic Process Worker
91. Podiatrist
92. Optician
93. Author
94. Cosmetologist
95. Computer Service Technician
96. Insurance Agent
97. Compositor/Typesetter
98. Engineering Technician
99. Architect
100. Psychiatrist
101. Dentist
102. Agricultural Scientist
103. Orthodontist
104. Automobile Assembler
105. Barber
106. Teacher's Aide
107. Bank Teller
108. Disc Jockey
109. Construction Foreman
110. Cashier
111. Physical Therapist
112. Public Relations Executive
113. Precision Assembler
114. Receptionist
115. Telephone Operator
116. Airplane Pilot
117. Conservationist
118. Sewage Plant Operator
119. Railroad Conductor
120. Sales Representative (Wholesale)
121. Real Estate Agent
122. Shoe Maker/Repairer
123. Veterinarian
124. Forklift Operator
125. Photographer
126. Vending Machine Repairer
127. Teacher
128. Buyer
129. Electrical Equipment Repairer
130. Shipping/Receiving Clerk
131. Recreation Worker
132. Furniture Upholsterer
133. Advertising Salesperson
134. Construction Machinery Operator
135. Respiratory Therapist
136. Farmer
137. Surveyor
138. Heating/Refrigeration Mechanic
139. Tool-And-Die Maker
140. Reporter (Newspaper)
141. Janitor
142. Physician (General Practice)
143. Nurse (Registered)
144. Plumber
145. Carpet/Tile Installer
146. Physician Assistant
147. Electrician
148. Dressmaker
149. Guard
150. Highway Patrol Officer
151. Drill-Press Operator
152. Travel Agent
153. Automobile Body Repairer
154. Waiter/Waitress
155. Machine Tool Operator
156. Surgeon
157. Aircraft Mechanic
158. Truck Driver
159. Salesperson (Retail)
160. Glazier
161. Choreographer
162. Chauffeur
163. Bartender
164. Undertaker
165. Machinist
166. Bus Driver
167. Photojournalist
168. Correction Officer
169. Maid
170. Actor
171. Drywall Applicator/Finisher
172. Plasterer
173. Nurse's Aide
174. Police Officer
175. Stevedore
176. Carpenter
177. Stationary Engineer
178. Dishwasher
179. Meter Reader
180. Bricklayer
181. Firefighter
182. Child Care Worker
183. Painter
184. Nurse (Licensed Practical)
185. Nuclear Decontamination Technician
186. Butcher
187. Automobile Mechanic
188. Sheet Metal Worker
189. Mail Carrier
190. Construction Worker (Laborer)
191. Ironworker
192. Roustabout
193. Welder
194. Garbage Collector
195. Roofer
196. Emergency Medical Technician
197. Seaman
198. Taxi Driver
199. Dairy Farmer
200. Lumberjack

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Happiness: a different doctor writes

I'm coming to the end of Phil Hammond's funny, outrageous, informative and wise book "Medicine Balls". Here's a bit (from p. 248) I'd like to throw into our communal soup:

There's no doubt that we're richer and living longer than we were in 1948, and the NHS can take some credit for that. But we don't seem to be any happier. Indeed, Labour has somehow contrived a health service where we have the best-paid doctors in the world and among the least satisfied. The research on happiness is pretty clear. Humans are social animals and are most content in communities where people unite around, and conform to, a shared ideal. We like to trust each other, we don't like change - particularly if it's constant and we don't understand it - but we're very resilient and adaptable if needs be. We're happier being involved and figuring out what to do ourselves rather than being dumped on from on high. More money, above a comfortable level, doesn't make us happier and neither does the aggressive, competitive attitude needed to earn it. Compassionate, positive people tend to be happiest of all, and also healthiest. If you can sort your brain out, your body tends to follow.