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Keyboard worrier
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Your prediction?
Experts and interested amateurs: please give us your best guess at the value by end 2008 - see sidebar.
6 comments:
Anonymous
said...
I voted for 5-5500 range not on the basis that I'm some sort of bull, but think that there will be a bear rally on the back of the TARP (which I'm sure will be rammed through willy-nilly). That will last until Christmas.
Then as the realisation that we may have avoided a 1930s style Depression but still have to deal with a deep recession sinks in, I see the market retracing its steps below 5000 soon after the new year, and probably below 4500 as the bad news keeps coming (higher unemployment, lower tax revenues, higher govt spending, higher repossessions, negative GDP growth, lower house prices etc etc). I foresee a particularly bad time around the budget when the true figures for govt borrowing come out, with implications for tax rises/spending cuts in the '09 and '10 budgets.
I will not be going back into the market until this time next year at the earliest, possibly not until spring 2010. The wild gyrations we see at the moment are typical of bear markets that oscillate up and down but always end up down in the end. It's quite possible to make money at the moment, but it's too like gambling for my liking. If I wanted to bet like that I'd go to a casino and bet red or black at roulette.
Experts and interested amateurs: please give us your best guess at the value by end 2008 - see sidebar.
6 comments:
I voted for 5-5500 range not on the basis that I'm some sort of bull, but think that there will be a bear rally on the back of the TARP (which I'm sure will be rammed through willy-nilly). That will last until Christmas.
Then as the realisation that we may have avoided a 1930s style Depression but still have to deal with a deep recession sinks in, I see the market retracing its steps below 5000 soon after the new year, and probably below 4500 as the bad news keeps coming (higher unemployment, lower tax revenues, higher govt spending, higher repossessions, negative GDP growth, lower house prices etc etc). I foresee a particularly bad time around the budget when the true figures for govt borrowing come out, with implications for tax rises/spending cuts in the '09 and '10 budgets.
I will not be going back into the market until this time next year at the earliest, possibly not until spring 2010. The wild gyrations we see at the moment are typical of bear markets that oscillate up and down but always end up down in the end. It's quite possible to make money at the moment, but it's too like gambling for my liking. If I wanted to bet like that I'd go to a casino and bet red or black at roulette.
Sobers, you echo my thoughts. And Spring 2010? I've said the same.
"I'll see yoooo again, whenever Spring breaks throoo again..."
Anthony Bolton called a bottom today.
I reckon that is about right, stocks are leading indicators after all.
sideways ish for the next 3 years.
4200
Below 4000. We're nowhere near the bottom yet.... the economy just jumped off the 100th floor and we're not even passing the 50th floor yet.
Below 4000. We're nowhere near the bottom yet.... the economy just jumped off the 100th floor and we're not even passing the 50th floor yet.
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