I looked at trends in the Dow earlier this year and guessed that the Dow's low might be 7,000. Now, Mish reports that Nouriel Roubini is saying the same.
The FTSE is currently hovering around 4,000, which is lower than the line I drew in June. But then, the line passed through, not under, the lowest negative spike in 2003. I seem to recall Wolfie predicting 4,000 in one of his comments here recently; well done, old chap.
7 comments:
I'd thought that under 4000 could be assumed: it's the possibility of under 3000 that worries me. The population is getting worried; a nice young woman asked me at lunch what "default" meant.
You could have explained it by telling the restaurant owner that she was paying, and then running out.
Thank you for the attribution but I fear I may have to revise my estimates this week as new forces have come into play, dark and frightening forces which could swallow our fragile economy whole.
Please explain, Wolfie. Is this to do with the non-zero sum position of many derivatives holders? Are we in Michael Panzner territory?
This is the game, Sackers - correctly guessing the low point.
Indeed Sackers, well and truely facing that possibility.
James: it is not a game that ordinary people should be forced to play.
Wolfie, are you able to pierce the fog surrounding this issue?
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