tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5524682876220396502.post429207778318787197..comments2024-03-27T06:56:10.255+00:00Comments on Broad Oak Magazine: Deflation and economic cyclesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5524682876220396502.post-37314632895997933562010-01-02T17:51:43.274+00:002010-01-02T17:51:43.274+00:00Thanks for your visit, Arthurian, and a happy New ...Thanks for your visit, Arthurian, and a happy New Year to you. <br><br>Like I say, I think the patterns will work, roughly. And I also think you're right about the self-reinforcing tendency, which is one of the reasons why we get bull and bear phases.Sackersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09410040031410954403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5524682876220396502.post-86403389897276054732010-01-02T16:37:40.696+00:002010-01-02T16:37:40.696+00:00Hey, thanks for the pretty color-wheel! Below the ...Hey, thanks for the pretty color-wheel! Below the wheel you describe two problems. I'd like to comment:<br><br>1. As you say, people tend to look for patterns. But the rare geniuses who find them -- Kondratieff, Toynbee -- are often ignored or belittled for their insights. I think the problem is that people insist on asking, "Exactly when will the change come?" People want to use the patterns to eke out every last dollar of profit. So of course it does not work. If you just use the cycle notions as a framework for general understanding, they can be most interesting.<br><br>2. It's true, people can change their behavior in an attempt to foil a prediction. However, the success of that effort depends on the correctness of their knowledge. <br><br>For example: Suppose we all know that our economy has been going downhill since the 1970s. And suppose we all know debt is the problem. And suppose as the years go by, we get more and more concerned, more and more involved, and more and more activist.<br><br>There is a good chance that the solutions we establish will only make the problem worse: A "positive feedback loop" in action. My opinion: that's where we are today.<br><br>Peace.The Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.com