Stockmarket: going down for the third time?

“… even a 50% decline in the stock market would not return any of the high-flying stocks to anywhere near reasonable valuation metrics,” says Karl Denninger, reading signs he saw “in front of the 2000 and 2008 market dislocations.”

In May 2007 I reported a similar prediction (Dow to drop 50%) by another expert, Richard Daughty aka The Mogambo Guru. It took two years to actualise but…

Denninger says his own pattern-reading is not a good timing indicator, but he seems convinced it’s going to happen again.

Still sanguine? Here’s a comment on my 2007 post:

Anonymous said...

I will bet your entire net worth the dow does not fall back to 6750. it would have a 7 multiple with 5-6% int rates not in anybody's lifetime

19 June 2007 at 23:12

To which I replied:

Sackerson said...

1. I'm a bear, so I'm looking to bet on sure things!

2. At one point, for a short time, the FTSE 100 dropped almost exactly 50% from its 2000 peak. It can happen.

20 June 2007 at 08:54

… and today I updated it:

Sackerson said...

Historical note: "The DJIA hit a market low of 6,469.95 on March 6, 2009, having lost over 54% of its value since the October 9, 2007 high." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007%E2%80%932009#:~:text=The%20DJIA%20hit%20a%20market,mere%20three%20weeks%20of%20gains.

10 August 2025 at 14:35