"Oil crunch" doesn't sound right, although it might be appropriate to shale oil: Jeffrey Brown outlines what looks like a compelling thesis on growing domestic energy consumption by major oil exporters. He thinks that the top five producers will be using all their own supplies by around 2030, and concludes that the USA must rapidly reshape its transportation system:
In simplest terms, we are concerned that the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy—net oil export capacity—is draining away in front of our very eyes, and we believe that it is imperative that major oil importing countries like the United States launch an emergency Electrification of Transportation program--electric light rail and streetcars--combined with a crash wind power program.
That is just the tip of the iceberg, surely: residential and office heating/lighting, mechanised farming, supermarket shopping, centralised medical facilities - so much will have to be reviewed and planned.
The flaw in this interesting account is that it fails to factor in $100, at which price (or even $80, or even $ 40 on a sustained basis), a great deal more oil becomes economic.
ReplyDelete(I know it mentions the rising-price backdrop to the commencement of decline in Texas.)
BTW the Sobolev link in the later post is duff (- I like reading about gold!)
Thanks, Nick: Sobolev link corrected. Re oil, as the price rises, presumably eco-destroying biofuels also become more attractive?
ReplyDeleteIndeed: all manner of substitutes and substitute-behaviours become economic.
ReplyDeleteThe interesting thing is that current UK renewable 'schemes' (subsidies) were instigated at $25-30 oil. The logical response to the advent of $100 oil / £50 power etc etc should be: OK guys, you're on your own now
curiously it doesn't work like that ...
Interesting post. I have been interested in peak oil for a while and I find it amazing we are not moving much faster on those issues. This really could be one of those great opportunities - we can reshape communities, have cities built for people rather than cars, build industries based on renewable energy, but we do have to start pretty much immediately.
ReplyDeleteHi Chervil, and welcome. Mass transportation in and between cities can certainly be improved (and presumably economically very viable); sun-rich countries could benefit from a number of interesting ways to generate energy (e.g. thermal towers turning turbines to make electricity). Re-localising food production would be a plus, though it may reimpoverish farmers in the developing world. Maybe more home-based working, too.
ReplyDelete