Monday, July 09, 2007

How far to fall? iTulip on the Dow and house prices

iTulip shows charts that follow the Dow and house prices, comparing them with inflation over a long period. The implication of the way this information is presented, is that stocks are about 100% over trend, or to put it another way, have a 50% fall to get to the trend line, and house prices would have maybe a third to lose.

I would guess that in terms of crystallising loss, this is more significant for equities than for real property, because you have to live somewhere.

3 comments:

  1. Anonymous13 July 2007 at 00:07

    I am the author of the charts referenced above. For the latest, see here:
    http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
    http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/recDJIAtoRD.html
    http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/newestHousData.gif
    FYI, thru today 7/12 for the Real Dow, and thru 2007 Q1 (= mid-Feb 2007) for Real Homes:
    Real Dow is 2.24x the +1.64 %/yr curve, which is a 55% drop thereto, and
    Real Homes national (green points) is 1.78x the ca. 54 level, which is a 44% drop thereto.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sackerson14 July 2007 at 12:35

    Many thanks. I shall also paste your comment into a new post.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ed14 July 2007 at 16:02

    sackerson,
    OK, and feel free to use any of my charts at your site.
    Ed

    ReplyDelete

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