Showing posts with label Dan Denning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dan Denning. Show all posts

Monday, September 03, 2007

Scare stories - "the S&P to fall to 700"

Dan Denning, in today's Daily Reckoning Australia, considers whether it may be a good time to unload your investments, and refers to reports of large bets made that the S&P 500 may drop to 700 (currently it's around 1,474) - or possibly rise to 1,700! It's got the conspiracy theorists exercised, although experts say it's a technical matter (see The Street); but the sums involved are large. Stormy weather ahead?

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Safety first

Dan Denning comments on the recent rush for cash and safe bonds in The Daily Reckoning Australia today. He also repeats Marc Faber's point about an "earnings bubble" that skews p/e ratios:

Be careful about using low P/E ratios as a buying indicator. We read in this morning's paper that the average P/E on the ASX 200 is the lowest its been in 12 months. That doesn't automatically mean stocks are "good value." In fact, in the past, low P/E ratios have been a sign of the market top. Why?

At the height of an economic cycle, corporate earnings are high. When earnings rise faster than share prices, the P/E ratio will look low, flashing a "buy" signal. But this may be just the time that earnings themselves have peaked. That's definitely not the time to buy a stock.

And even commodity shares have to be chosen with care, when you factor-in rising costs.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

The plain truth about investment

Dan Denning in The Daily Reckoning Australia says today:

"Studies show being in the right asset class accounts for over 90% of your total return in any given investment.

--This happens to be why we are still bullish on Aussie resource stocks despite the China melt-up. Resource stocks are the right asset class to be in right now, and probably for the next 15 years. There will be dips and potholes. But if the asset class is right (and resource stocks made a 200-year low in 2000, so they are still very cheap in historic terms), then the investment maths is really simple."

That's it, unless you're a gunslinger investor and fancy your chances against people who stare at computer screens all day, all week. The world's governments can print all the money they like, but they can't print the resources that turn into things money buys. This is where most bears are bulls.