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Friday, January 29, 2010

If only

If only Judge Judy could be asking the questions at the Chilcot Enquiry today.

"Don't bother me with this nonsense."
"Are you on medication?"
"Speak not!"
"I don't believe you."
"That's not what I asked you, sir."
"I don't give a rat's tutu for your pain and suffering."
"Baloney!"
"On my worst day, I'm smarter than you on your best day."
"What you have said doesn't make sense, and I'll tell you why."
"Quiet! When my lips start to move, your lips stop."
"Are you chewing gum?"
"Stop messing with your papers. Look into my eyes, that's how I know if you're telling me the truth."
"Is English your primary language, sir?"
"They don't pay me enough for this." (Bert, quietly: "Oh, yes, they do.")
"Goodbye, have a nice life."

Oh, if only...

Sunday, January 24, 2010

GIGO

The light may be dawning for some of our leaders.

In the recent Congressional hearings with the financial industry, it became quite clear that their evangelical belief in the unregulated free market had blinded them to the simple fact that money is only a medium of exchange, and that wealth cannot be created by the push of a button.

These wizards have cousins in industry, the pointy-haired boss of the Dilbert cartoons, who have been trained by Management specialists to believe that process matters more than productivity, and meetings more than manufacturing.

Their relatives in Education are just as deluded and dangerous. Since it became a university discipline, Education graduates have taken most of the administrative jobs in universities and schools and related ones in government. As each new Education 'paradigm' is introduced, we in the US and UK fall farther behind the Far East, where they teach the 'old way'.

My opinion is that every one of these ideas is doomed to failure, since they rely on two false assumptions:

1. We can magically train our mediocre students to become the teachers of the best and brightest.

2. The 'secret' to improving results is to change the way that teachers do their jobs, rather than changing the way that students behave.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Kraft, Cadbury's and the mystery of M&A

Company A buys Company B, using bank borrowing to finance almost 50% of the purchase, which loan it will repay by stripping Company B. Loss of jobs, skills, quite possibly alteration to product quality at some point, quite possibly lower overall profitability for the conglomerate as a result of the takeover (this is, I believe, quite common).

Cui bono? Should there be a rule against financing takeovers with bankster cash?

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Human Nature?

Today, I started my 27th year of teaching at a State-supported US university. Compared with 1984, we have the same number of students, fewer full-time teaching faculty, and twice as many administrators. In the past 8 years alone, the non-academic budget has grown from 44% to 60% of the budget.

This week, we start discussions on increasing teaching loads (which will, of course, require more administrators to 'organize' things).

I see this trend in business, government, medicine and the military. Is it just the human condition that the non-productive take over everything?

I recall that, when the Mongols took over a city, they killed the bureaucrats, and took the scholars home with them. The Allies did much the same in Germany in 1945.

Perhaps they had the right idea?

Monday, January 11, 2010

Climate change and industrial activity

Could the current cold weather be partly related to a downturn in fossil-fuel-powered manufacturing and transportation? I only ask because I seem to recall reading/hearing that big freezes also happened in the 70s, and after both World wars.

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Which books should we burn?

Welsh pensioners are buying books as fuel. Discounting differences in book size, and assuming you could gather all copies of the same title, which books would you burn?

On his deathbed, the poet Virgil requested his friends to burn his "Aeneid". Does an author have the right to do this?

GDP: friend or foe?

I attended the British Association for the Advancement of Science Conference in Birmingham in 1977, and even then economists were asking whether GDP was a useful measure. The example I remember was eating more sweets and consequently visiting the dentist more often.

Should we be quite so concerned about goosing GDP with quantitative easing etc, or is it just a trap to make us continue misallocating resources?

Marmite Easter Egg

According to a team of astronomers, the Milky Way is surrounded by a shell of invisible "dark matter" (Htp: Yves Smith).

But the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy is gpoing to take longer to shloop us up than we thought previously.

We have a bit more time to eat that strawberry.

Sunday, January 03, 2010

China, Tibet, Arunachal Pradesh: the giant stirs

I don't know how I can have missed it, but Peter Hitchens reminds us today: Britain has given Tibet to China, thanks to Foreign Secretary David Miliband. Hitchens suggests it's something to do with the credit crunch and the price of China's support for the IMF.

China is struggling to provide for its people, and needs (among other things) wood, water and minerals. Tibet is a valuable source of such resources; but after floods caused by deforestation, and ice melts because of industrial activity, China has begun to consider sustainability and is working to undo some of the damage. The Chinese don't need finger-wagging from pseudo-religious green zealots: this is a matter of survival, and the undemocratic nature of their political structure may allow them to make longer-term, and therefore more successful plans.

Nevertheless, one suspects that unlike here in the Mrs-Jellyby-like UK, but like in most other sanely-led countries, China operates on the principle "look after our nation first, and worry about the rest of the world after that". So despite the protests of Free Tibet and others, that, sadly, is that.

But diplomacy to foster better treatment of ethnic Tibetans might have had more success if we hadn't given away such a powerful bargaining point, all in one go. There is a Japanese saying I read in one of James Clavell's novels: "give fish soup, but never the fish". I think we are represented by a boyish amateur.

You may say, if I'm so in favour of our minding our own business, why bother with Tibet? My answer is that we should be trying to encourage our future master to be kinder to his servants.

Besides, giving way on the Tibet question implicitly undermines our position on the 1913/1914 Simla Accord, which also established the border between India and China, which leads us to the next item on the land acquisition list: the province of Arunachal Pradesh, on which I commented in April 2008. The Dalai Lama clearly understands the implications as His Holiness visited the province last November - much to China's annoyance (here, also). Interestingly, it now seems difficult to access the Dalai Lama's own newspage on this story - another Chinese cyber-attack, or a diplomatic self-censorship?

Anyhow, these are more straws in the wind.